tirris daily nhl predictions
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
1100 dollars on pickmonitor. as i said before, im mostly done with real money bets as the season is coming to an end and i dont feel like my indicators work as well now
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
Will there be win-loss recap and off the record, post-season predictions?
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
yes there will be a recap. i will post results of my own bankroll, my pickmonitor stats and the results id have gotten had i only followed the model, although those are based on indicators that i have since deemed unsatisfactory for the whole season (like i said i made them before the season and havent changed them since then, but it has been much easier to make tighter filters while actually following the results and doing the picks, so ill have much better filters for next season)
i might also post results of all the matches mentioned in this thread but only if i have time, since i havent been keeping score on these and id have to go through all my posts to calculate the results
sundays predictions
these are very low confidence and mostly for fun
1* - [51] Chicago Blackhawks 2.05 vs St. Louis Blues
1* - [56] Nashville Predators 2.23 vs Detroit Red Wings
i might also post results of all the matches mentioned in this thread but only if i have time, since i havent been keeping score on these and id have to go through all my posts to calculate the results
sundays predictions
these are very low confidence and mostly for fun
1* - [51] Chicago Blackhawks 2.05 vs St. Louis Blues
1* - [56] Nashville Predators 2.23 vs Detroit Red Wings
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
sundays results
1/2 right for 5 dollar profit, same old same old. but this hardly matters as i didnt feel any of those matches were actually good for betting. i followed the model on nashville but should have known to not bet with the forward situation nashville has while chicago was a gut pick
1/2 right for 5 dollar profit, same old same old. but this hardly matters as i didnt feel any of those matches were actually good for betting. i followed the model on nashville but should have known to not bet with the forward situation nashville has while chicago was a gut pick
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
mondays predictions
here we go again. i dont feel too good about these particular picks but i feel good about the way i have been using the models lately so fire away. maybe ill throw some real money at these too to keep things interesting. my model is also craaaazy about nashville so moneyline or +1,5 spread might be good for them but ill pass this time although my indicators really scream to go for it. nashvilles forward situation right now is just too bad
1* - [1] New Jersey Devils 2.30 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [10] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 2.68 vs Dallas Stars
2* - [10] Chicago Blackhawks 1.56 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [14] Colorado Avalanche 1.97 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
take the devils one with a grain of salt as i have lost more money with devils than any other team this season. last season it was los angeles btw which was ironic because they ended up winning stanley cup. they were just very frustrating in the regular season which was why they ended up as 8th seed for playoffs. they kept winning nicely against good teams and then when you finally felt good enough to bet on them they would lose against a really bad team. this is a problem with really low scoring teams.
here we go again. i dont feel too good about these particular picks but i feel good about the way i have been using the models lately so fire away. maybe ill throw some real money at these too to keep things interesting. my model is also craaaazy about nashville so moneyline or +1,5 spread might be good for them but ill pass this time although my indicators really scream to go for it. nashvilles forward situation right now is just too bad
1* - [1] New Jersey Devils 2.30 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [10] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 2.68 vs Dallas Stars
2* - [10] Chicago Blackhawks 1.56 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [14] Colorado Avalanche 1.97 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
take the devils one with a grain of salt as i have lost more money with devils than any other team this season. last season it was los angeles btw which was ironic because they ended up winning stanley cup. they were just very frustrating in the regular season which was why they ended up as 8th seed for playoffs. they kept winning nicely against good teams and then when you finally felt good enough to bet on them they would lose against a really bad team. this is a problem with really low scoring teams.
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
mondays results
aarghh another okey +165 day that feels like a dissapointment because a great day was sooo close. colorado scored a 3-2 goal at 17:58 in the 3rd but miraculously still managed to lose. meanwhile devils exhibited perfectly why my model wants me to keep betting on them and why i keep losing money. they nearly tripled their opponent in shots for but gave a late goal and final goaltender stats were 11/12 and 32/32.
but chicagos routine win was profitable enough to make the day profitable. oh btw in case anyone european is wondering, pickmonitor uses american style odds so for example last nights post didnt mean that i put 2 units on chicago, 1 unit on devils and so on, that would have made it a negative day for me. it means that i risked about 380$ to win 200$ on chicago, and 100$ to win 130 on devils and so on
aarghh another okey +165 day that feels like a dissapointment because a great day was sooo close. colorado scored a 3-2 goal at 17:58 in the 3rd but miraculously still managed to lose. meanwhile devils exhibited perfectly why my model wants me to keep betting on them and why i keep losing money. they nearly tripled their opponent in shots for but gave a late goal and final goaltender stats were 11/12 and 32/32.
but chicagos routine win was profitable enough to make the day profitable. oh btw in case anyone european is wondering, pickmonitor uses american style odds so for example last nights post didnt mean that i put 2 units on chicago, 1 unit on devils and so on, that would have made it a negative day for me. it means that i risked about 380$ to win 200$ on chicago, and 100$ to win 130 on devils and so on
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
tuesdays predictions
got these done quickly, there will be no more predictions today
2* - [52] New York Islanders 1.45 vs Florida Panthers
1* - [52] New York Islanders -1.5 2.35 vs Florida Panthers
2* - [62] St. Louis Blues 1.74 vs Vancouver Canucks
im upping my bet sizes a little compared to what i have bet before. i now have about 10900 on betmonitor and today i got 900 $ riding on these 3 bets. its not that these are much better than the ones i previously made, im just doing bigger bets now out of boredom as my real money bets are really small now. so basically all my hard earned profits at pickmonitor are riding on st. louis and islanders and i hope it wont be a 0-2 day
got these done quickly, there will be no more predictions today
2* - [52] New York Islanders 1.45 vs Florida Panthers
1* - [52] New York Islanders -1.5 2.35 vs Florida Panthers
2* - [62] St. Louis Blues 1.74 vs Vancouver Canucks
im upping my bet sizes a little compared to what i have bet before. i now have about 10900 on betmonitor and today i got 900 $ riding on these 3 bets. its not that these are much better than the ones i previously made, im just doing bigger bets now out of boredom as my real money bets are really small now. so basically all my hard earned profits at pickmonitor are riding on st. louis and islanders and i hope it wont be a 0-2 day
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
tuesdays results
finally a perfect day. its not like i was doing bad before as almost every day was profitable but still i was doing 2-3 bet on most days and didnt hit a perfect day for about 2 weeks i think so it was certainly due
by now none of you probably now how im really doing in the long run but im too lazy to post any small updates now and it wont take long before the season ends so the recap is coming
finally a perfect day. its not like i was doing bad before as almost every day was profitable but still i was doing 2-3 bet on most days and didnt hit a perfect day for about 2 weeks i think so it was certainly due
by now none of you probably now how im really doing in the long run but im too lazy to post any small updates now and it wont take long before the season ends so the recap is coming
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
Vancouver almost spoiled your day, that shit went down to the last 5 minutes. Such a shame Vancouver still sucks 

Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
wednesdays predictions
for the first time in weeks im not going to place any bets
calgary vs detroit at 2,38 should easily be profitable in the long run but i will not bet this time as detroit is in the middle of a really close playoff battle while calgary is already out of the playoffs. mind you,this shouldnt actually matter according to my research and calgary has some really good incidators going for it today but i just have a bad gut feeling!
boston vs buffalo at 1,4 is also profitable according to my research but by such a small amount that i wont bother. its good to get a day off anyway after a +535$ day
for the first time in weeks im not going to place any bets
calgary vs detroit at 2,38 should easily be profitable in the long run but i will not bet this time as detroit is in the middle of a really close playoff battle while calgary is already out of the playoffs. mind you,this shouldnt actually matter according to my research and calgary has some really good incidators going for it today but i just have a bad gut feeling!
boston vs buffalo at 1,4 is also profitable according to my research but by such a small amount that i wont bother. its good to get a day off anyway after a +535$ day
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
Dearest Tirri - I need your help. I have plummeted to the middle of my NRL (national rugby league) footy tipping comp ladder - I am quickly becoming a discrace to my workmates and friends. News of your tipping prowess has reached me by Koala mail here in Australia. I need your help to get a great score for this weekends matches.
Here are the games:
Roosters V Dragons
Storm V Warriors
Sea Eagles V Rabbitohs
Cowboys V Raiders
Wests Tigers V Broncos
Titans V Knights
Sharks V Bulldogs
Panthers V Eels
And here is the current ladder from the competition.
League Ladder
Rank Team W D L Pts
1 Melbourne Storm 6 0 0 12
2 Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 5 0 1 10
3 South Sydney Rabbitohs 5 0 1 10
4 Sydney Roosters 4 0 2 8
5 Newcastle Knights 4 0 2 8
6 Gold Coast Titans 4 0 2 8
7 Brisbane Broncos 3 0 3 6
8 St George-Illawarra Dragons 3 0 3 6
9 Canberra Raiders 3 0 3 6
10 Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 2 0 4 4
11 North Queensland Cowboys 2 0 4 4
12 Parramatta Eels 2 0 4 4
13 Wests Tigers 2 0 4 4
14 Penrith Panthers 1 0 5 2
15 Warriors 1 0 5 2
16 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 1 0 5 2
Bless your soul good Tirri.
Here are the games:
Roosters V Dragons
Storm V Warriors
Sea Eagles V Rabbitohs
Cowboys V Raiders
Wests Tigers V Broncos
Titans V Knights
Sharks V Bulldogs
Panthers V Eels
And here is the current ladder from the competition.
League Ladder
Rank Team W D L Pts
1 Melbourne Storm 6 0 0 12
2 Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 5 0 1 10
3 South Sydney Rabbitohs 5 0 1 10
4 Sydney Roosters 4 0 2 8
5 Newcastle Knights 4 0 2 8
6 Gold Coast Titans 4 0 2 8
7 Brisbane Broncos 3 0 3 6
8 St George-Illawarra Dragons 3 0 3 6
9 Canberra Raiders 3 0 3 6
10 Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 2 0 4 4
11 North Queensland Cowboys 2 0 4 4
12 Parramatta Eels 2 0 4 4
13 Wests Tigers 2 0 4 4
14 Penrith Panthers 1 0 5 2
15 Warriors 1 0 5 2
16 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 1 0 5 2
Bless your soul good Tirri.
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
wednesdays results
nifty as i couldnt sleep and at 2am happened to notice that calgarys odds had gone even higher and couldnt resist betting. of course i wont calculate these if i happen to have time to do my forum pick analysis but this will show nicely on pickmonitor.
this opens up a discussion about line movements which i havent really talked about much. of course you always want to bet at the best possible time, which is quite often as early as possible for heavy favourites and quite near the match for heavy underdogs. this poses a problem for me as im always in bed already when the matches start so especially with underdogs i often dont bet with the best possible odds.
hello dear rugby follower. now i just need to collect data for at least 3 rugby seasons, preferrably with odds, then make about 230 variables, possibly as close to hockey variables as possible as i have no idea about rugby variables, and then do the actual models. i will get back to you in 2-3 years
nifty as i couldnt sleep and at 2am happened to notice that calgarys odds had gone even higher and couldnt resist betting. of course i wont calculate these if i happen to have time to do my forum pick analysis but this will show nicely on pickmonitor.
this opens up a discussion about line movements which i havent really talked about much. of course you always want to bet at the best possible time, which is quite often as early as possible for heavy favourites and quite near the match for heavy underdogs. this poses a problem for me as im always in bed already when the matches start so especially with underdogs i often dont bet with the best possible odds.
hello dear rugby follower. now i just need to collect data for at least 3 rugby seasons, preferrably with odds, then make about 230 variables, possibly as close to hockey variables as possible as i have no idea about rugby variables, and then do the actual models. i will get back to you in 2-3 years
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
thursdays predictions
lots of action today in what might be the last few good game days before best teams start resting their star players. almost all my earlier profits are on play again today!
1* - [53] New York Islanders 2.15 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [52] New York Rangers 1.39 vs Florida Panthers
2* - [60] Montreal Canadiens 1.65 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
1* - [64] St. Louis Blues 1.60 vs Phoenix Coyotes
2* - [66] Dallas Stars 2.20 vs Vancouver Canucks
2* - [70] Los Angeles Kings 1.55 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
lots of action today in what might be the last few good game days before best teams start resting their star players. almost all my earlier profits are on play again today!
1* - [53] New York Islanders 2.15 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [52] New York Rangers 1.39 vs Florida Panthers
2* - [60] Montreal Canadiens 1.65 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
1* - [64] St. Louis Blues 1.60 vs Phoenix Coyotes
2* - [66] Dallas Stars 2.20 vs Vancouver Canucks
2* - [70] Los Angeles Kings 1.55 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
lol, aint nobody got time fo thattirri wrote:wednesdays results
hello dear rugby follower. now i just need to collect data for at least 3 rugby seasons, preferrably with odds, then make about 230 variables, possibly as close to hockey variables as possible as i have no idea about rugby variables, and then do the actual models. i will get back to you in 2-3 years
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
thursdays results
6/6 for +955$ at pickmonitor plus real money bets which i have started again since it would be a shame to miss this hot streak. like i said earlier, im really liking the way ive learned to use the model now but ill tell more about this when i make the recap. regular season ends in 9 days. its a shame about this shortened season as i was just getting the hang of this
6/6 for +955$ at pickmonitor plus real money bets which i have started again since it would be a shame to miss this hot streak. like i said earlier, im really liking the way ive learned to use the model now but ill tell more about this when i make the recap. regular season ends in 9 days. its a shame about this shortened season as i was just getting the hang of this
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
for all interested, here is a sneak peek of my results!
http://www.pickmonitor.com/handicappers
select customize, then set minimum picks to 50, everything else can be default. then sort by ROI. My nick is lunatus, currently 8 out of 204 active handicappers when sorted by ROI.
or if you select all handicappers instead of active handicappers and sort by roi, im 22nd out of 617
now 79 picks is still too little to make big conclusions but considering this is the first season im using this model and really betting a lot, im more than satisfied and quite excited for next year. i only have 79 picks on pickmonitor because i hadnt registered there yet at the beginning of the season
http://www.pickmonitor.com/handicappers
select customize, then set minimum picks to 50, everything else can be default. then sort by ROI. My nick is lunatus, currently 8 out of 204 active handicappers when sorted by ROI.
or if you select all handicappers instead of active handicappers and sort by roi, im 22nd out of 617
now 79 picks is still too little to make big conclusions but considering this is the first season im using this model and really betting a lot, im more than satisfied and quite excited for next year. i only have 79 picks on pickmonitor because i hadnt registered there yet at the beginning of the season
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
fridays predictions
only small bets today as i have been pretty busy. i also wont be doing predictions tomorrow and possible not on sunday either
1* - [3] New York Rangers 1.80 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [6] St. Louis Blues 1.59 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [12] Colorado Avalanche 1.83 vs Edmonton Oilers
1* - [10] Calgary Flames 2.45 vs Anaheim Ducks
only small bets today as i have been pretty busy. i also wont be doing predictions tomorrow and possible not on sunday either
1* - [3] New York Rangers 1.80 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [6] St. Louis Blues 1.59 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [12] Colorado Avalanche 1.83 vs Edmonton Oilers
1* - [10] Calgary Flames 2.45 vs Anaheim Ducks
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
i die a little inside every time you bet against anaheim.
i think arze is ready to take away your finnishness for betting against teemu.
i think arze is ready to take away your finnishness for betting against teemu.
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
fridays results
nice 3/4 for +225$ day as my roi is getting bigger and bigger
nice 3/4 for +225$ day as my roi is getting bigger and bigger
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
*fap fap fap*tirri wrote:
nice 3/4 for +225$ day as my roi is getting bigger and bigger
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
tirri i really don't understand a single word in your thread but next season I'll give you my money and you'll make me rich. Can't be worse than investing in gold!
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
saturdays predictions
sorry for wrong info, i have some time to do predictions after all. ill just post this here fast and maybe do some other later if i can. its a shame i couldnt do these before as the devils odds are already down.
$100 Pick: [52] New Jersey Devils 1.49
edit:
devils already won nicely, obviously should have bet more or -1,5 spread but ive been busy today so only small bets. here are the rest:
1* - [58] Montreal Canadiens 1.69 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [60] Ottawa Senators 1.77 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
sorry for wrong info, i have some time to do predictions after all. ill just post this here fast and maybe do some other later if i can. its a shame i couldnt do these before as the devils odds are already down.
$100 Pick: [52] New Jersey Devils 1.49
edit:
devils already won nicely, obviously should have bet more or -1,5 spread but ive been busy today so only small bets. here are the rest:
1* - [58] Montreal Canadiens 1.69 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [60] Ottawa Senators 1.77 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
Do any of you guys play Hockey? I played for about 10 years but having a job has gotten in the way of it! While at university my team won the national championship twice, god I was awesome.
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
saturdays results
first losing day in a while but no biggie as it was due. montreals bet size was small because price has been bad lately and ottawas was small because toronto has been winning despite being outshot all season long so those really werent high confidence picks. sure enough price was really bad and montreal lost to washington while ottawa managed 50 shots for and only 22 against but toronto prevailed. the system has been working so well lately that i dont really have to second guess my picks so im still feeling confident
first losing day in a while but no biggie as it was due. montreals bet size was small because price has been bad lately and ottawas was small because toronto has been winning despite being outshot all season long so those really werent high confidence picks. sure enough price was really bad and montreal lost to washington while ottawa managed 50 shots for and only 22 against but toronto prevailed. the system has been working so well lately that i dont really have to second guess my picks so im still feeling confident
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
sundays predictions
1* - [2] Boston Bruins -1.5 1.95 vs Florida Panthers
1* - [2] Boston Bruins 1.34 vs Florida Panthers
1* - [6] Minnesota Wild 1.43 vs Calgary Flames
2* - [16] Los Angeles Kings 1.54 vs Dallas Stars
no great targets today. especially boston according to my research is only barely profitable and by so little that usually i would not bet on them. but im just lazy again as its supposed to be a sure thing and florida has been absolutely horrible. still this is a lot like that anaheim v colorado game a while ago and at least im a little wiser now and only betting really small and not putting 1100$ on the line
1* - [2] Boston Bruins -1.5 1.95 vs Florida Panthers
1* - [2] Boston Bruins 1.34 vs Florida Panthers
1* - [6] Minnesota Wild 1.43 vs Calgary Flames
2* - [16] Los Angeles Kings 1.54 vs Dallas Stars
no great targets today. especially boston according to my research is only barely profitable and by so little that usually i would not bet on them. but im just lazy again as its supposed to be a sure thing and florida has been absolutely horrible. still this is a lot like that anaheim v colorado game a while ago and at least im a little wiser now and only betting really small and not putting 1100$ on the line
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
Come on keep it together mate, I am sensing a slump. Bring back the biff !
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
sundays predictions
los angeles saved the day with an overtime win for a nicely profitable 3/4 +170$ day. all in all i was 19/25 last week, good stuff good stuff.
this was actually a pretty hard day to bet on and i had trouble with most of those matches. devils had really high odds and now that kovalchuk is back it was hard to go for rangers with those odds, even though they ended up winning 4-1. meanwhile colorado beat a really hot st. louis team while columbus beat one of the best home teams in san jose. i dont know what kind of a system you would need to consistently make money on those matches so im just glad i stayed away. even that boston match which eventually won for me really wasnt a great pick or an easy pick as boston had maybe the lowest odds of the season and they had lost 4 straight games so its a bit hard to put lots of money riding on them
i mostly just want to get 100 picks together on pickmonitor before the season ends but its pretty hard to find good picks now. the best teams dont really have a lot to play for, chicago just played 2 overtime games against nashville and phoenix for example so betting on them with very low odds isnt really a good idea. then there are matches like yesterdays tamba vs carolina where both teams are horrible and have nothing to play for at this stage which makes it hard to bet
los angeles saved the day with an overtime win for a nicely profitable 3/4 +170$ day. all in all i was 19/25 last week, good stuff good stuff.
this was actually a pretty hard day to bet on and i had trouble with most of those matches. devils had really high odds and now that kovalchuk is back it was hard to go for rangers with those odds, even though they ended up winning 4-1. meanwhile colorado beat a really hot st. louis team while columbus beat one of the best home teams in san jose. i dont know what kind of a system you would need to consistently make money on those matches so im just glad i stayed away. even that boston match which eventually won for me really wasnt a great pick or an easy pick as boston had maybe the lowest odds of the season and they had lost 4 straight games so its a bit hard to put lots of money riding on them
i mostly just want to get 100 picks together on pickmonitor before the season ends but its pretty hard to find good picks now. the best teams dont really have a lot to play for, chicago just played 2 overtime games against nashville and phoenix for example so betting on them with very low odds isnt really a good idea. then there are matches like yesterdays tamba vs carolina where both teams are horrible and have nothing to play for at this stage which makes it hard to bet
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
mondays predictions
2* - [51] Winnipeg Jets 1.83 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [57] Anaheim Ducks 1.80 vs Edmonton Oilers
anaheim is pretty much like boston yesterday, only very barely profitable according to my research.
chicago against vancouer at 2,01 odds seemed really good at first. its a 81% road win% team with a recent record of 8-0-2 against a 64 home win% team with a recent record of 6-3-1. and chicago would only have to win 50% of the time for the bet to be profitable. but no matter how i researched, i just couldnt find profitable numbers in this match. im also taking into account that chicago might rest some of their star players now that they have already won western conference, so i wont bet on them today, although a cursory glance at their respective numbers really make chicago seem like a good opportunity
2* - [51] Winnipeg Jets 1.83 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [57] Anaheim Ducks 1.80 vs Edmonton Oilers
anaheim is pretty much like boston yesterday, only very barely profitable according to my research.
chicago against vancouer at 2,01 odds seemed really good at first. its a 81% road win% team with a recent record of 8-0-2 against a 64 home win% team with a recent record of 6-3-1. and chicago would only have to win 50% of the time for the bet to be profitable. but no matter how i researched, i just couldnt find profitable numbers in this match. im also taking into account that chicago might rest some of their star players now that they have already won western conference, so i wont bet on them today, although a cursory glance at their respective numbers really make chicago seem like a good opportunity
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
mondays results
another perfect day as i stay scorching hot. lets hope this keeps up as there are 5 more days of games to go (1 last game on sunday 28th but i doubt ill be betting on that).
really happy about this day in general because the model seems to be working so well. of course one match isnt an indicator about anything but random noise but still im happy about passing on chicago because of the model when all my usual logical powers and rudimentary number checks told to go for it!
another perfect day as i stay scorching hot. lets hope this keeps up as there are 5 more days of games to go (1 last game on sunday 28th but i doubt ill be betting on that).
really happy about this day in general because the model seems to be working so well. of course one match isnt an indicator about anything but random noise but still im happy about passing on chicago because of the model when all my usual logical powers and rudimentary number checks told to go for it!
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
tuesdays predictions
this was a really annoying day to predict, lots of matches with big odds for underdogs and i don't have time to research 10 matches closely enough so ill just throw these out there and hope for the best. all the underdog bets should probably have been made much closer to the game time but as ill be sleeping then anyway, ill just make them already and get this over with
2* - [1] Winnipeg Jets 2.63 vs Washington Capitals
2* - [8] Philadelphia Flyers 2.27 vs Boston Bruins
1* - [10] Florida Panthers 2.90 vs New York Rangers
1* - [14] St. Louis Blues 1.44 vs Colorado Avalanche
2* - [18] San Jose Sharks 1.56 vs Dallas Stars
this was a really annoying day to predict, lots of matches with big odds for underdogs and i don't have time to research 10 matches closely enough so ill just throw these out there and hope for the best. all the underdog bets should probably have been made much closer to the game time but as ill be sleeping then anyway, ill just make them already and get this over with
2* - [1] Winnipeg Jets 2.63 vs Washington Capitals
2* - [8] Philadelphia Flyers 2.27 vs Boston Bruins
1* - [10] Florida Panthers 2.90 vs New York Rangers
1* - [14] St. Louis Blues 1.44 vs Colorado Avalanche
2* - [18] San Jose Sharks 1.56 vs Dallas Stars
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
tuesdays results
just a ridonkulously good day for 2/2 favorites and 2/3 underdogs for +544.
this forum is really a bad venue for these picks as i dont think you people have the knowledge to appreciate these enough and next season i will find something else, maybe pickmonitor forums. this day was actually a really hard one to predict and you really need to follow nhl closely and possibly be a better to fully appreciate all that was going. i can tell you that a lot of handicappers lost a lot of money on pittsburgh, islanders, rangers and los angeles and im really happy that i dodged all those.
im also reaaaally happy about the florida pick and i dont think you will find a lot of recommendations for them. as i said earlier tho, i would have gotten better odds had i waited and i knew it, im just a bit too lazy
just a ridonkulously good day for 2/2 favorites and 2/3 underdogs for +544.
this forum is really a bad venue for these picks as i dont think you people have the knowledge to appreciate these enough and next season i will find something else, maybe pickmonitor forums. this day was actually a really hard one to predict and you really need to follow nhl closely and possibly be a better to fully appreciate all that was going. i can tell you that a lot of handicappers lost a lot of money on pittsburgh, islanders, rangers and los angeles and im really happy that i dodged all those.
im also reaaaally happy about the florida pick and i dont think you will find a lot of recommendations for them. as i said earlier tho, i would have gotten better odds had i waited and i knew it, im just a bit too lazy
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Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
Orlytirri wrote:i dont think you people have the knowledge to appreciate these enough
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
yes, rlyNewMutator wrote:Orlytirri wrote:i dont think you people have the knowledge to appreciate these enough
i will now educate you people a little. keep in mind im not an especially learned handicapper and i mostly like to find stuff out by myself and havent read all that much about betting so all this might not be completely accurate.
there are several ways to be a profitable handicapper (although most ways are quite hard) and you can have a number of system that arent based on win% predictions but on completely different things. however, most prediction models that are out there are used mostly just to have a rough estimate for a knowledgeable handicapper who can then, based on the model, start digging deeper and checking if the match is indeed worth betting so basically the prediction model accounts for maybe 1/10 of the betting decision. this means that if there is a chargeable betting service out there that markets itself with a good model, you are usually buying a crappy model with a good handicapper making manual picks.
i however have now almost solely used the prediction model. 95% of the betting decision are based only on the model and without the model i am not even close to being a winning handicapper. i am now 3 winning pick away from having the best ROI out of people who have more than 100 bets on pickmonitor. and i have done this in 27 days making daily predictions. i can not emphasize enough how good these results are as this is the first season that i am using these models (which anyone without nhl knowledge could use)
do i hyperbole much? certainly so take these with a grain of salt. but to say im impressed with these models would be an understatement!
so yes im quite bummed that im making these predictions on a 15 year old game forum instead of some place where i could actually get some knowledgeable help. if i had decided to pick a random forum on the internetz where i would start making these picks, i dont think i could have done worse than the gjol. BIG MISTAKE by me
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Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
What kind of help are you looking to get? Also, if you did receive help, would you be as proud of your ROI as you are now? You said yourself you like to find things out for yourself (I am the same way). You weren't sure how your model would hold up, so why not post here? I don't buy that it was a mistake; you simply hedged your bets.
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Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
Anyway, I've been following the model's performance, so you've at least one person who appreciates it.
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
I've read this thread as well, not understanding a single thing tho. Makes 2 people who read, way worth it !
Carry on and next season you'll make me rich.
Carry on and next season you'll make me rich.
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
i will make a detailed post if i have time newmutator, for now ill just post picks quickly
wednesdays predictions
obviously not a great day for betting, only 4 matches and not very good ones, so only small bets
1* - [52] Tampa Bay Lightning 1.87 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [55] Chicago Blackhawks 1.63 vs Edmonton Oilers
chicago vs edmonton is small because chicago seems to be only barely profitable, but even those barely profitable ones have been doing pretty good lately so im going to give it a go.
tampa on the other hand looks really good according to my model. but if new jersey was the team i lost most money betting on this season, then toronto is the team i probably lost most money betting against. the model keeps underrating them for the simple reason that they get badly outshot in many games (like ottawa vs toronto where i bet on ottawa and the shots were 50 to 22 but toronto won easily). so only small bet for tampa but i do believe that toronto is overachieving a little and if this was a full season, im not sure if they would make the playoffs
wednesdays predictions
obviously not a great day for betting, only 4 matches and not very good ones, so only small bets
1* - [52] Tampa Bay Lightning 1.87 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [55] Chicago Blackhawks 1.63 vs Edmonton Oilers
chicago vs edmonton is small because chicago seems to be only barely profitable, but even those barely profitable ones have been doing pretty good lately so im going to give it a go.
tampa on the other hand looks really good according to my model. but if new jersey was the team i lost most money betting on this season, then toronto is the team i probably lost most money betting against. the model keeps underrating them for the simple reason that they get badly outshot in many games (like ottawa vs toronto where i bet on ottawa and the shots were 50 to 22 but toronto won easily). so only small bet for tampa but i do believe that toronto is overachieving a little and if this was a full season, im not sure if they would make the playoffs
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
wednesdays results
perfect day for a nice +200. since 4/16 im 24/29!
one more pick and ill hit 100 at pickmonitor
perfect day for a nice +200. since 4/16 im 24/29!
one more pick and ill hit 100 at pickmonitor
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
thursdays predictions
really hard day today, the odds came out realy late for some matches and i dont have time to go over 11 matches closely enough. on top of that, the odds keep changing pretty rapidly and a lot of teams are playing crappy 2nd goalies
1* - [3] Ottawa Senators 2.10 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [12] Detroit Red Wings 1.45 vs Nashville Predators
1* - [8] Florida Panthers 2.45 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
really hard day today, the odds came out realy late for some matches and i dont have time to go over 11 matches closely enough. on top of that, the odds keep changing pretty rapidly and a lot of teams are playing crappy 2nd goalies
1* - [3] Ottawa Senators 2.10 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [12] Detroit Red Wings 1.45 vs Nashville Predators
1* - [8] Florida Panthers 2.45 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
I am kinda with Enc on this one, shut up and take my money 

Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
double post!
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
thursdays results
2/3 for +100. i guess i can be happy as it was kind of a messy day overall. i have however grown a little complacent cause i didnt want to get big losses so late into a great season and there would have been some good opportunities yesterday that i missed. with some research st. louis probably would have been bet-worthy. devils were once again bet-worthy and several really good indicators told to go for them but for the first time in a while i didnt follow the model. the biggest reason was that hedberg was starting and i got some bad flashbacks from earlier this year. hedberg did have .889 save% but devils prevailed anyway and i should have listened to the model. i also havent done many spread bets lately that were doing really good earlier, and after learning that mason starts for nashville i reailly should have gone -1,5 with detroit.
but my mission is fulfilled now! if you go check http://www.pickmonitor.com/handicappers and sort by roi or effective winp, lunatus should be first without customizing the list at all, right after the list is updated some time today.
my stats now are
Period W L P WP eP eWP ROI Z AOP ABS ADP
Overall 64 38 +$3,920 62.75 +$8,388 62.27 18.88 1.90 -125 140 3.52
and here is a nice graph of my profits

2/3 for +100. i guess i can be happy as it was kind of a messy day overall. i have however grown a little complacent cause i didnt want to get big losses so late into a great season and there would have been some good opportunities yesterday that i missed. with some research st. louis probably would have been bet-worthy. devils were once again bet-worthy and several really good indicators told to go for them but for the first time in a while i didnt follow the model. the biggest reason was that hedberg was starting and i got some bad flashbacks from earlier this year. hedberg did have .889 save% but devils prevailed anyway and i should have listened to the model. i also havent done many spread bets lately that were doing really good earlier, and after learning that mason starts for nashville i reailly should have gone -1,5 with detroit.
but my mission is fulfilled now! if you go check http://www.pickmonitor.com/handicappers and sort by roi or effective winp, lunatus should be first without customizing the list at all, right after the list is updated some time today.
my stats now are
Period W L P WP eP eWP ROI Z AOP ABS ADP
Overall 64 38 +$3,920 62.75 +$8,388 62.27 18.88 1.90 -125 140 3.52
and here is a nice graph of my profits

Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
odds are really slow to appear today. setting the odds is probably a bit difficult as so many teams rest players or play without incentive. yesterday anaheim for example sat 4 of their regulars. this basically makes the model obsolete too so i might be done for the season but i will run the model for research purposes anyway when i get the odds and see if anything turns up
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
fridays predictions
one small bet today and even that is a little questionable as islanders and buffalo dont really have anything to play for and islanders might have lost some jump now after a really nice run to get into the playoffs
1* - [51] New York Islanders 1.87 vs Buffalo Sabres
both chicago and minnesota are barely barely profitable according to my research but im not going to bother wasting money with such low odds on the second to last day of the season
one small bet today and even that is a little questionable as islanders and buffalo dont really have anything to play for and islanders might have lost some jump now after a really nice run to get into the playoffs
1* - [51] New York Islanders 1.87 vs Buffalo Sabres
both chicago and minnesota are barely barely profitable according to my research but im not going to bother wasting money with such low odds on the second to last day of the season
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
fridays results
SO loss after outshooting buffalo for -115, no biggie. a rather hard day again with edmonton stomping minnesota 6-1 at road while minnesota is fighting for their playoff life. chicago did win but again i did not know if they would sit their star players or not.
last real day of regular season today, lets see if i have time to research 13 matches
SO loss after outshooting buffalo for -115, no biggie. a rather hard day again with edmonton stomping minnesota 6-1 at road while minnesota is fighting for their playoff life. chicago did win but again i did not know if they would sit their star players or not.
last real day of regular season today, lets see if i have time to research 13 matches
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
okay tirri.
give us power rankings to end the season since nothing is worth betting.
give us power rankings to end the season since nothing is worth betting.
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
saturdays predictions
surprisingly there really arent too many interesting matches today although one would have expected for there to be some really low and high odds on the last day of the season. however since there will be no predictions after today, ill throw the most interesting stuff out here
1* - [13] Montreal Canadiens 1.83 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [7] Boston Bruins 1.77 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [16] Colorado Avalanche 2.22 vs Minnesota Wild
colorado vs minnesota is by far the most interesting one and if you look at the teams statistics, at a glance colorados odds seem ridiculously high. but minnesota needs a win to get into the playoffs while colorado has nothing to play for. its hard to estimate how much of a difference that will make to the win% estimates but im still going to put a small bet on colorado.
theres also detroit vs dallas which is only very barely profitable for detroit and usually i wouldnt go for it and i didnt even go for it today. but some people will see value there because detroit will secure a playoff spot with a win, they have been very hot lately and on top of all that dallas is starting bachman as their goaltender. my gut handicapper instinct says that this might be a really really good place for a -1,5 spread bet on detroit but as i suck as a handicapper and am completely model reliant, i will pass this time.
surprisingly there really arent too many interesting matches today although one would have expected for there to be some really low and high odds on the last day of the season. however since there will be no predictions after today, ill throw the most interesting stuff out here
1* - [13] Montreal Canadiens 1.83 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [7] Boston Bruins 1.77 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [16] Colorado Avalanche 2.22 vs Minnesota Wild
colorado vs minnesota is by far the most interesting one and if you look at the teams statistics, at a glance colorados odds seem ridiculously high. but minnesota needs a win to get into the playoffs while colorado has nothing to play for. its hard to estimate how much of a difference that will make to the win% estimates but im still going to put a small bet on colorado.
theres also detroit vs dallas which is only very barely profitable for detroit and usually i wouldnt go for it and i didnt even go for it today. but some people will see value there because detroit will secure a playoff spot with a win, they have been very hot lately and on top of all that dallas is starting bachman as their goaltender. my gut handicapper instinct says that this might be a really really good place for a -1,5 spread bet on detroit but as i suck as a handicapper and am completely model reliant, i will pass this time.
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
saturdays results
1/3 and -130 after losing 2 really close games with boston and colorado. sad to end the season with 2 losing days after staying so ridiculously hot for a couple of weeks and i also lost my number one spot on the ROI list but thats betting for you. cant blame the model too much as all the 3 losses collected yesterday and today were really close and i was due to lose a couple of them. shame i didnt go for that detroit spread play as it would have made the day profitable
recap of the season will probably come in a day or 2!
1/3 and -130 after losing 2 really close games with boston and colorado. sad to end the season with 2 losing days after staying so ridiculously hot for a couple of weeks and i also lost my number one spot on the ROI list but thats betting for you. cant blame the model too much as all the 3 losses collected yesterday and today were really close and i was due to lose a couple of them. shame i didnt go for that detroit spread play as it would have made the day profitable
recap of the season will probably come in a day or 2!
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
TIRRIS NHL PREDICTIONS SEASON RECAP
as promised, here comes my season recap
my current bankroll
my bankroll is now up roughly 15% compared to what it was at the start of the season. All in all I'm a little dissapointed by that number because the model worked better than that if you take into account the number of bets and interest-on-interest. the biggest reason for this is that my bankroll management was quite poor.
in the beginning of the season i didnt know if i could trust the model completely so my bets were relatively small. then just when i started betting bigger the model started performing worse. and the same thing kind of happened again during the season, ie i finally decided the model isnt working well enough and started making smaller bets just when things picked up again.
on top of this, most of my biggest bets lost (the high confidence and medium confidence picks in the beginning of the season). this was a little bit due to bad luck as usually my team did double or triple the shots for but hit a good goaltender, but i also learned during the season that those picks really werent the high confidence picks i thought they were.
but all in all that +15% isnt bad if you consider that i lost a majority of my biggest bets. and remember that the +15% also includes all the silly parlays (out of which not a single one hit) and all other bets i made this season so using only the model the profits would have been better.
model performance
in the beginning of the season, the model performed ricidulously well.
- From the beginning of the season to March the 20th the model had recommended 125 bets with 82 wins and 24,4 ROI (had I put 1 unit on each bet).
things then started going badly but i kept following the model because i figured it was just random variation. but after a few weeks of bad results, i started digging in deeper with the indicators and found out that the indicators really werent that good to begin with. i dont have a clear explanation on why they worked so well early in the season, but from march 21st to the end of the season the results for the premade indicators were:
- 155 bets with 79 wins (51%) and -5,1% ROI
for the pre-made indicators this means that the results for the whole season were:
- 280 recommendations, 161 wins (57,5%), 8,06% ROI
i will share a little bit about the indicators now. i tried making a set of predetermined indicators before the season which would help me in the betting process. my season datas were on different files and as the seasons vary quite a lot, i had a little bit of difficulty in figuring out which indicators worked on all seasons. i ended up making some very general indicators that worked on most seasons. when these indicators worked so well at the beginning, i was happy with them and didnt have time to research things further. but when the results started getting worse, i made a much better system and basically abandoned the idea of premade indicators altogether and im now using adjustable indicators for each match individually which is a much better system. this is the system i used at the end of the season for the month i made pickmonitor picks and those results were really good:
106 picks, 65 wins (61,32 winp), 17,31 ROI
i do like to point out that even that 8,06% ROI would put me number 22 out of 192 handicappers on pickmonitor when sorted by ROI, but i must stress that those results really arent indicative of the model anymore as i have abandoned all the indicators used there.
forum picks
i just dont have the energy to go through 17 pages of predictions, especially since my format of announcing predictions has changed a lot and i wouldnt always know which matches to take into account.
i will say that this forum got shafted a little because it always got the wrong end of the stick. at first, when the model was working great, i was manually meddling with the predictions and made them much worse. then just when i got the epiphany of following the model only, it started working badly. i believe the ROI for these forum picks are about 5% which is really bad considering that even the premade indicator model was at 8% but this was mostly just luck of the draw as i was new at this and my betting systems kept changing all the time.
the future
i am quite excited about next season because in general, the models worked really well and i have no doubt that one can be a profitable handicapper using them. i am especially happy about the adjustable indicators i started using at the end of the season because things went really, really well with them. i have a completely new model technique in construction too, but i will keep using the models i used this season because the results were so good.
that 280 recommendations with 8% ROI is good to keep in mind and really think about what it means. if you bet 0,01 of your bankroll on each game, you can cycle your bankroll almost 3 times over for 8% ROI and i am quite condifent that i can top those results with more experience and the last month at pickmonitor (with 17% ROI) is a better indicator of the model right now. and this was a shortened season, so in a full season i can expect more bets although it seems that the adjustable indicators are tightening my bets a little so it remains to be seen
as promised, here comes my season recap
my current bankroll
my bankroll is now up roughly 15% compared to what it was at the start of the season. All in all I'm a little dissapointed by that number because the model worked better than that if you take into account the number of bets and interest-on-interest. the biggest reason for this is that my bankroll management was quite poor.
in the beginning of the season i didnt know if i could trust the model completely so my bets were relatively small. then just when i started betting bigger the model started performing worse. and the same thing kind of happened again during the season, ie i finally decided the model isnt working well enough and started making smaller bets just when things picked up again.
on top of this, most of my biggest bets lost (the high confidence and medium confidence picks in the beginning of the season). this was a little bit due to bad luck as usually my team did double or triple the shots for but hit a good goaltender, but i also learned during the season that those picks really werent the high confidence picks i thought they were.
but all in all that +15% isnt bad if you consider that i lost a majority of my biggest bets. and remember that the +15% also includes all the silly parlays (out of which not a single one hit) and all other bets i made this season so using only the model the profits would have been better.
model performance
in the beginning of the season, the model performed ricidulously well.
- From the beginning of the season to March the 20th the model had recommended 125 bets with 82 wins and 24,4 ROI (had I put 1 unit on each bet).
things then started going badly but i kept following the model because i figured it was just random variation. but after a few weeks of bad results, i started digging in deeper with the indicators and found out that the indicators really werent that good to begin with. i dont have a clear explanation on why they worked so well early in the season, but from march 21st to the end of the season the results for the premade indicators were:
- 155 bets with 79 wins (51%) and -5,1% ROI
for the pre-made indicators this means that the results for the whole season were:
- 280 recommendations, 161 wins (57,5%), 8,06% ROI
i will share a little bit about the indicators now. i tried making a set of predetermined indicators before the season which would help me in the betting process. my season datas were on different files and as the seasons vary quite a lot, i had a little bit of difficulty in figuring out which indicators worked on all seasons. i ended up making some very general indicators that worked on most seasons. when these indicators worked so well at the beginning, i was happy with them and didnt have time to research things further. but when the results started getting worse, i made a much better system and basically abandoned the idea of premade indicators altogether and im now using adjustable indicators for each match individually which is a much better system. this is the system i used at the end of the season for the month i made pickmonitor picks and those results were really good:
106 picks, 65 wins (61,32 winp), 17,31 ROI
i do like to point out that even that 8,06% ROI would put me number 22 out of 192 handicappers on pickmonitor when sorted by ROI, but i must stress that those results really arent indicative of the model anymore as i have abandoned all the indicators used there.
forum picks
i just dont have the energy to go through 17 pages of predictions, especially since my format of announcing predictions has changed a lot and i wouldnt always know which matches to take into account.
i will say that this forum got shafted a little because it always got the wrong end of the stick. at first, when the model was working great, i was manually meddling with the predictions and made them much worse. then just when i got the epiphany of following the model only, it started working badly. i believe the ROI for these forum picks are about 5% which is really bad considering that even the premade indicator model was at 8% but this was mostly just luck of the draw as i was new at this and my betting systems kept changing all the time.
the future
i am quite excited about next season because in general, the models worked really well and i have no doubt that one can be a profitable handicapper using them. i am especially happy about the adjustable indicators i started using at the end of the season because things went really, really well with them. i have a completely new model technique in construction too, but i will keep using the models i used this season because the results were so good.
that 280 recommendations with 8% ROI is good to keep in mind and really think about what it means. if you bet 0,01 of your bankroll on each game, you can cycle your bankroll almost 3 times over for 8% ROI and i am quite condifent that i can top those results with more experience and the last month at pickmonitor (with 17% ROI) is a better indicator of the model right now. and this was a shortened season, so in a full season i can expect more bets although it seems that the adjustable indicators are tightening my bets a little so it remains to be seen
Re: tirris daily nhl predictions
Who do you pick to win the Stanley Cup?