tirri's daily nhl predictions, season 2013-2014

crleme · Post by **crleme** » 20 Nov 2013, 18:25

have you found out if malkin plays or not?

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 20 Nov 2013, 19:50

i read that he did not practise but wasnt worried because i havent heard anything about him not playing. obviously pitts isnt worth a bet at those odds if malkin wont play

par73 · Post by **par73** » 20 Nov 2013, 23:33

creme I need your new phone number bro
did you move out from your parents house yet?

vittu

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 21 Nov 2013, 05:03

nice day again and things are starting to look good after a not so great start although i dont thinK i was losing money for more than 2 days at the start of the season. my pickmonitor stats stand at 191 bets and 15,67% ROI. staying at 15% is quite honestly all i could have hoped for this season since it cant get much higher than that in the long run.

now there's nothing left to do except wait for the inevitable downturn which is bound to happen to any handicapper. i really havent had a long string of bad luck since i started that pickmonitor record and eventually it will come. last season i did great at the start, pretty badly during the middle and again great at the end but i did find a lot of holes because of that bad run which i have now plugged, so i have no idea if im bound to have a rough spot during the middle of the season model-wise or not. this season will of course be different from last season anyway since 82 games will be played instead of 48 and i dont even have hands on experience on how the model will work during the long december-february grind.

if you look at my profits graph, the only conclusion you can come into is THAT A HORRIBLE DROP IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER

crleme · Post by **crleme** » 21 Nov 2013, 07:39

par73 wrote:creme I need your new phone number bro
did you move out from your parents house yet?

vittu

yes but i'm not supposed to talk to strangers

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 21 Nov 2013, 10:50

My Tracked Plays
2* - [51] St. Louis Blues 2.05 vs Boston Bruins
1* - [54] Philadelphia Flyers 1.50 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [54] Philadelphia Flyers -1 1.85 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [61] New York Rangers 2.00 vs Dallas Stars
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

I see a lot of home teams being on the edge of profitability today. At least Winnipeg, San Jose and Los Angeles look to be at about 0-2% ROI in the long run but this season I haven't really put in any fringe bets so I wont today either and those teams go in the "good but not bet-worthy category

i havent checked det-car, pho-col,edm-flo or tor-nash yet

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 21 Nov 2013, 11:28

My Tracked Plays
1* - [55] Nashville Predators 2.25 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [63] Colorado Avalanche 2.10 vs Phoenix Coyotes
1* - [65] Florida Panthers 2.20 vs Edmonton Oilers
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

very road heavy once again

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 22 Nov 2013, 06:19

superbly good day with 6/7 hitting. i did get quite lucky with at least colorado and rangers and maybe even st. louis, but ive lost a lot of road games where the road team dominated in chances so it was time something like this happened. im also really pleased about skipping on los angeles. i dont think betting on a team like new jersey in this instance would be profitable in the long run, they did only get 15 shots on goal, but im happy that i didnt go for LA in this case either

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 22 Nov 2013, 13:02

My Tracked Plays
2* - [3] Montreal Canadiens 2.05 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [10] Vancouver Canucks -1 1.87 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

probably no other picks today. Montreal isnt really a 2 unit pick, it was more like 1,5 with my money bets but pickmonitor doesnt allow stuff like that

Myrk · Post by **Myrk** » 22 Nov 2013, 19:48

I dunno what the deal is but every time you post a handicap pick I find much better odds on Pinnacle than what your posts indicate the odds should be. For example you posted Vancouver -1 at 1.87 and it's giving me odds of 2.5. I'm getting the odds of 2.07 for your Montral pick of 2.05 which looks normal enough. Dunno if I'm missing something or this is just giving me ridiculous good odds.
Anyway great picks, I'm up some good money last couple days.

crleme · Post by **crleme** » 22 Nov 2013, 20:04

tirri wrote:... ....
when i put -1 spread on pickmonitor, my own money bet is usually -0,5 on pinnacle, which just comes down to win in regulation or i lose

... ...

if i remember correctly vancouver -0,5 was exactly 1.87 on pinnacle at least earlier today

crleme · Post by **crleme** » 22 Nov 2013, 20:14

but anyway it's been a thrill to make a profit on nhl betting which i once considered impossible

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 22 Nov 2013, 20:29

Myrk wrote:I dunno what the deal is but every time you post a handicap pick I find much better odds on Pinnacle than what your posts indicate the odds should be. For example you posted Vancouver -1 at 1.87 and it's giving me odds of 2.5. I'm getting the odds of 2.07 for your Montral pick of 2.05 which looks normal enough. Dunno if I'm missing something or this is just giving me ridiculous good odds.
Anyway great picks, I'm up some good money last couple days.

like i explained earlier, pickmonitor doesnt allow me to track my picks exactly like my own money bets at pinnacle.
When there is no number before the odds, it just means moneyline win which is the same at pinnacle as NHL OT Included -> Money Line. these should be roughly equal at pickmonitor and pinnacle (like in the instance of this montreal game)
Same goes for -1,5 spreads, at pinnacle NHL OT Included -> Handicap -> -1,5 spread. these also should be roughly equal at pickmonitor and pinnacle

but the win in regulation picks at pinnacle (NHL Regulation Time -> Handicap -> -0,5) is not found at pickmonitor. this is usually when i use the -1 spread there instead even though my own money pick is the -0,5 spread at pinnacle. and the -0,5 and -1 spreads arent exactly the same thing like i explained earlier (check the post a few pages back) but i'd say they should be about as profitable in the long run since the difference is quite small.

so myrk, when you are talking about the vancouver -1 line, the closest thing pinnacle has to it is the NHL Regulation Time -> Handicap -> -0,5 spread option, which is at 1.769 at pinnacle now. you were comparing it to vancouver -1,5 spread which was at 2.5 earlier.

edit: also to add to this. all this of course makes following my recommendations really hard because the lines also move during the day. so if i post a -1 spread pick in the morning and then the lines move, followers will have a really difficult time figuring out if the -0,5 spread at pinnacle can be deemed profitable also. i understand this but this is of course just for fun and none of you is a paying customer whose profits im trying to maximize. i would however advice people that if i make my recommendation early and you only check it out later (and you can find a comparable line at your own bookie), if the lines have gone down over 0,05 decimals, then you probably shouldnt place a bet. several odds sites track the movement of the lines, like oddsportal.com or even pickmonitor tracks the line movements that happen at 5dimes (for example http://www.pickmonitor.com/t/605315). beating the closing line is a really interesting topic in itself but i wont get to it now

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 23 Nov 2013, 05:17

i think most of those -1 recommendations have actually covered the -1,5 spread too so im a little pissed i didnt go for the -1,5 myself

its easy to say during the game but vancouver is outshooting columbus 2 to 1 and is leading 5-1 so i probably should have gone -1,5 spread too, oh well. i gotta start trying it for some of these heavy road favorites with small bet sizes maybe

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 23 Nov 2013, 13:32

My Tracked Plays
1* - [56] Detroit Red Wings 1.74 vs Ottawa Senators
1* - [61] Pittsburgh Penguins 1.87 vs Montreal Canadiens
1* - [59] Washington Capitals 2.15 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [68] St. Louis Blues -1 1.89 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [63] Anaheim Ducks 2.35 vs Phoenix Coyotes
1* - [68] St. Louis Blues 1.53 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [72] Los Angeles Kings -1 2.20 vs Colorado Avalanche
1* - [72] Los Angeles Kings 1.67 vs Colorado Avalanche
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

havent analysed van - chi, phi - nyi or nas - nyr but im taking a break now

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 23 Nov 2013, 16:14

My Tracked Plays
1* - [70] Vancouver Canucks 2.17 vs Chicago Blackhawks
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

overall i have a pretty good feeling about todays picks. i finally got some home games in too and the few home games i have bet on earlier this season have done pretty well. but i have a feeling from last season that saturday is by far my worst day overall. i dont know why that is, but lets hope this wont be some catastrophic 0/9 day

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 24 Nov 2013, 06:10

A typically frustrating saturday as all the close games went against me with a 0-1 (ot), 1-2, 1-2 (so) and 2-3 losses but i guess i was due for a day like this. What makes it even more frustrating is that that i still make those "better but not bet-worthy" notes in my own trackings and all of philly, rangers, sharks and boston were close to making the cut and naturally they went 4/4. Oh well it has still been a good season so far

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 24 Nov 2013, 09:33

no bets on sunday. i have detroit as slightly profitable and probably would have bet on them, but datsyuk is out so ill just skip it. it wouldnt have been an especially big bet anyway

Myrk · Post by **Myrk** » 25 Nov 2013, 17:23

Weird that pinnacle has an "NHL OT Included" section with handicaps there yet it's just regulation. Thanks for the info.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 25 Nov 2013, 18:28

My Tracked Plays
1* - [51] Pittsburgh Penguins 2.05 vs Boston Bruins
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

meh this day will be useless since i didnt have time to make the analyses early enough. all of st. louis, rangers, pittsburgh and even a few others were potentially good picks, but the odds have already gone down too much so ill just skip the bets. i made a small bet on pittsburgh but really it's only barely worth it. rangers would have been the best pick for today with the opening odds but the odds already went way down

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 25 Nov 2013, 18:39

1* - [53] Columbus Blue Jackets +1 1.96 vs Toronto Maple Leafs

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 25 Nov 2013, 21:46

note:
there's a discussion on pickmonitor about +1.0 and -1.0 lines and such (http://www.pickmonitor.com/t/the-proble ... post-48650). if i understand correctly, pickmonitor offers odds that are too good for those lines and do not reflect real odds. i didnt know about this but i think ill stick to using moneyline and -1,5 and +1,5 spreads from now on.

these too-good lines aren't really a big problem in my record since i dont think i used -1/+1 spreads at all last season and i have used them probably less than 10 times this season and most of the time the -1,5 spreads would have hit too

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 26 Nov 2013, 06:08

+-0 day today, shame since pittsburgh managed to tie with less than 1 sec remaining and in general they out-chanced boston so i felt the 2,06 odds were fine but rask was the difference this time. ive had a few days in a row now when my better-but-no bets would have been quite profitable since yesterday i had st. louis, nashville, chicago and rangers there and would have gone 3/4, the day before that it was detroit and the day before that they were 4/4. i gotta start thinking about making a little more bets maybe. but no worries, things still look good.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 26 Nov 2013, 20:28

My Tracked Plays
2* - [1] Anaheim Ducks 2.05 vs Dallas Stars

anaheim turned out to be ok, dunno if its as good as some of the other 2 unit bets ive made lately but at least 1,5 units

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 27 Nov 2013, 09:31

a bad streak going on. lets hope it ends soon but always have to remember that in the very best scenario, i will get about 60% right in a 50-50 scenario. this means that i will easily have bad losing weeks and even months.

My Tracked Plays
1* - [60] New Jersey Devils 1.69 vs Carolina Hurricanes
2* - [57] Montreal Canadiens 1.63 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [62] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 2.45 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [62] Pittsburgh Penguins 1.48 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
2* - [71] St. Louis Blues 1.87 vs Colorado Avalanche
1* - [74] Calgary Flames 2.65 vs Chicago Blackhawks
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

havent checked out all games yet

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 27 Nov 2013, 12:38

My Tracked Plays
1* - [53] Ottawa Senators 2.25 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [65] Philadelphia Flyers 2.05 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
1* - [76] San Jose Sharks 1.59 vs Los Angeles Kings
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 27 Nov 2013, 18:36

at this time it seems easy to see where the edge in the models come from and why its important to make the predictions quite early. out of 8 teams, 6 teams have gone down in odds and some pretty significantly. the only ones that have gone up a little are devils and san jose. devils because brodeur was confirmed as the starter, which isnt really a big minus but not knowing the starting goalies is the price you have to pay for early predictions. san jose i probably could have guessed because smart money seems to like los angeles but i doubt sharks go up too much anymore.

it's easy to feel good about the predictions on days like these and even if the day goes badly for one reason or another, the underlying predictions with those odds were solid enough

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 28 Nov 2013, 07:02

Well i got mixed feelings about yesterday. +280 on pickmonitor so its not like it was a bad day although my own bets werent exactly like them so i didnt win as much. I guess i even got a little lucky since pit and san only won in the SO even though the sharks had a 5 on 3 late in 3rd and pitts out-chanced toronto so badly that im more pissed about pits not covering the spread rather than happy about the so win. What was most annoying however was calgary leading 2-0 midway thru 3rd but still losing since i thought it was a pretty good pick.

Still overall good to even have a positive day after a few bad ones

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 28 Nov 2013, 08:52

My Tracked Plays
3* - [1] Vancouver Canucks 1.87 vs Ottawa Senators
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

one of the best opportunities so far this season in my opinion, even though i wont list reason here.
i put 3 units on vancouver moneyline mostly because pickmonitor doesnt allow a wider variety of bets. in my money bets ill probably do something 2 units moneyline, 1 units vanoucer -0,5.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 28 Nov 2013, 17:40

Vancouvers odds have been going down. I dont have time to do the analysis again with the new odds but i probably wouldnt place a bet anymore at this time

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 29 Nov 2013, 06:12

My Tracked Plays
1* - [63] Montreal Canadiens 1.95 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [69] New Jersey Devils 2.15 vs Carolina Hurricanes
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

friday looks like a tough day to bet on. only small bets for those and im not sure if there will be more bets coming. for a 12 match day the amount of bets will be really small

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 29 Nov 2013, 12:25

1* - [67] Edmonton Oilers 2.35 vs Columbus Blue Jackets

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 30 Nov 2013, 07:38

My Tracked Plays
1* - [1] Vancouver Canucks 1.91 vs New York Rangers
1* - [10] New Jersey Devils -1.5 2.55 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [12] New York Islanders 1.91 vs Washington Capitals
2* - [4] Montreal Canadiens 1.61 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [20] Los Angeles Kings -1.5 2.40 vs Calgary Flames
1* - [20] Los Angeles Kings 1.44 vs Calgary Flames
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

i did these in quite a hurry because i will have a busy day. i didnt have time to go over all of the matches and i really dont have a great feeling about all of those either

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 30 Nov 2013, 18:48

2* - [13] Chicago Blackhawks 1.91 vs Phoenix Coyotes

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 30 Nov 2013, 19:05

1* - [15] Philadelphia Flyers 2.10 vs Nashville Predators

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 01 Dec 2013, 13:29

My Tracked Plays
1* - [51] Vancouver Canucks 1.77 vs Carolina Hurricanes
2* - [53] Detroit Red Wings 2.00 vs Ottawa Senators
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

things havent been going so well in the past 10 days or so and im staying at about +/-0 during that time but im not too worried about that since my feeling is always that a ridiculously good stretch seems to be more probable than a catastrophic stretch. yesterday had a chance of being a pretty good day but islanders lost with washington getting a last minute short handed tying goal and los angeles also lost due to a last minute goal. that los angeles loss was pretty bad overall since calgary had just played back to back, lost badly and have a lot of injuries. los angeles has been a little disapointing lately and they are pretty hard to bet for or against these days. los angeles is the kind of team that even though they will almost never blow out even a bottom cellar team like calgary, next game they will nevertheless play pretty evenly against a top team like san jose or chicago.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 02 Dec 2013, 13:58

no bets today as the odds are very well placed. rangers and devils mighty be barely profitable in the long run but i havent done fringe bets this season. i'd probably would have placed a small bet on devils if schneider started but brodeur will start so ill pass

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 03 Dec 2013, 07:30

good day in the sense that i didnt do any bets. it was a pretty hard day overall because both rangers and devils out-chanced their opponents by quite a bit but still managed to lose. it's pretty easy to see why the model was close to giving thumbs up for devils seeing how they played and what their odds were, but still the result would have been a loss.

kings continue just as i said in the post above, ie after they play pretty evenly against one of the worst teams in nhl and manage to lose, in the next game they play very evenly against one of the best teams and manage to win, so making predictions for them is quite hard overall

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 03 Dec 2013, 10:04

My Tracked Plays
1* - [54] New York Islanders 2.45 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
2* - [51] San Jose Sharks 1.65 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [57] Tampa Bay Lightning 1.83 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
1* - [61] Vancouver Canucks 1.87 vs Nashville Predators
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 03 Dec 2013, 13:14

1* - [60] Florida Panthers 2.00 vs Ottawa Senators

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 04 Dec 2013, 08:36

meh day yesterday, im having a really hard time getting home underdog bets to hit. ive been close several times, for example calgary was leading 2-0 against chicago a while ago in the third but still managed to lose. yesterday both islanders and florida were already leading 2-0 but both managed to lose. but its not like they really played well enough to win so not a big deal

My Tracked Plays
2* - [2] New Jersey Devils 1.95 vs Montreal Canadiens
1* - [6] Calgary Flames 2.25 vs Phoenix Coyotes
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

that calgary bet is low confidence because i havent hit home underdogs so far and ive lost a lot of money betting against phoenix. the 1 unit is missleading because for example the tampa bay and vancouver bets yesterday (both 1 unit) were much higher confidence, this is just a pickmonitor scaling problem because ive kinda gotten stuck to using 100 dollar bets mostly.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 05 Dec 2013, 17:19

My Tracked Plays
2* - [51] Dallas Stars 2.00 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [62] Florida Panthers 1.95 vs Winnipeg Jets
1* - [59] Ottawa Senators 2.07 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
1* - [58] Montreal Canadiens 2.10 vs Boston Bruins
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

really hard day to predict and im pretty late in analysing these so be careful!

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 05 Dec 2013, 18:58

1* - [70] Edmonton Oilers 2.15 vs Colorado Avalanche

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 05 Dec 2013, 21:03

1* - [64] Minnesota Wild 2.07 vs Chicago Blackhawks

i have a bad feeling about all of these bets

BIG KROK V8 SS · Post by **BIG KROK V8 SS** » 06 Dec 2013, 04:54

SUP. PENS > SHARKS. RAPE DAYED.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 06 Dec 2013, 09:09

My Tracked Plays
1* - [1] Minnesota Wild 1.87 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
1* - [12] Vancouver Canucks 1.67 vs Phoenix Coyotes
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 07 Dec 2013, 06:44

cant seem to break out of the +/-0 streak

My Tracked Plays
1* - [58] Ottawa Senators 1.74 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [59] Nashville Predators 2.45 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [72] Los Angeles Kings -1.5 2.40 vs New York Islanders
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

really hard day today, probably almost no more bets

my own bet for los angeles will probably be win in regulation or something like that, the -1,5 spread is just due to the pickmonitor system

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 07 Dec 2013, 15:11

1* - [64] Detroit Red Wings -1 2.12 vs Florida Panthers

i had to go -1 on pickmonitor on this one even if the odds are probably incorrect there and i get too-good-a-deal there. the pick is so low confidence that i didnt want to risk about 160 dollars to win 100 and i also didnt want to do -1,5 spread. in my own money bets i bet -0,5 detroit (so win in regulation) for 1.98 odds

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 07 Dec 2013, 15:33

1* - [53] Pittsburgh Penguins 2.30 vs Boston Bruins

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 08 Dec 2013, 14:02

My Tracked Plays
2* - [3] Boston Bruins 1.69 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [10] Vancouver Canucks 1.69 vs Colorado Avalanche
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

going through a really annoying stretch right now but im not too worried as i keep beating the closing lines pretty consistently. pittsburgh and to a lesser degree ottawa were pretty bad beats yesterday.