tirris daily nhl predictions

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 07 Mar 2013, 05:45

wednesdays results

chicago victory for 41% profit, but this is nothing to brag about since im pretty sure almost all betting tip sites told people to go for chicago and the match itself was a little too close for comfort.
im sad i didnt go for calgary because the model was all over them but the reasons for not betting were okey as kiprusoff just got back from injury and had a .870 sv% this seasons before yesterdays match and greiss wasnt confirmed until after i went to bed.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 07 Mar 2013, 11:38

thursdays predictions
this one looks like a tough day with some mixed signals but what the hell, ill just follow the model mostly. what worries me is that all the model offered teams seem to be worse than their opponents, so theres always a chance for -100% day but remember we arent betting for the most likely winner but the team that brings best expected value. the model has however suggested a lot of clear favorites in the past too so underdog bets isnt really a trend.

bet-worthy:
philadelphia against pittsburgh, 2,06 odds
phoenix against st. louis, 1,88 odds
columbus against vancouver, 2,35 odds (i wish the model would stop suggesting columbus)

pretty close to being bet-worthy:
boston against toronto, 1,48
winnipeg against tampa, 2,15
islanders against rangers, 2,04
montreal against carolina, 1,96
new jersey against buffalo, 1,7 (again model suggests its bet-worthy and again hedberg starts, but nj is bound to win one eventually!)

dac · Post by **dac** » 07 Mar 2013, 16:10

it's going to keep picking columbus looking because theyre perceived to be worse than their record says they are, so there will always be value. i wonder if you took the over on columbus for all of these games if their win percentage (30) would wind up making you money after all

Myrk · Post by **Myrk** » 07 Mar 2013, 18:55

My e-sports bet came through although Stephano only won 2-1 and won 3 out of 5 matches overall. Still believe the odds were really good.

par73 · Post by **par73** » 07 Mar 2013, 19:00

dac wrote:
par73 wrote:boston has been on a beastly winning streak

honestly they put in charra and he knocks heads in to provoke a fight, then once it's 4 on 4 boston absolutely rapes the competition with four players.
fighting doesnt cause a 4x4. jesus.

it can if both fighting players are penalized (which happens 99% of the time if not all the time)

dac · Post by **dac** » 07 Mar 2013, 19:35

absolutely false.

you maintain 5x5 hockey after a fighting major. you get 4x4 if two players receive minor penalties. major penalties assigned when two players are fighting each other do NOT make you lose a player. boston lost chara because he got a 2 minute instigator penalty tacked on when he mugged whatshisface and then he got a 10 min game misconduct on top of it. that put boston on a penalty kill, but that was only the result of his 2 min instigator penalty and not the fighting or the misconduct.

4x4 only happens when both teams commit a minor penalty.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 07 Mar 2013, 21:30

im still second guessing a lot of today's recommendations, so dont bet too heavily. i kind of feel that i have too many indicators right now and no good ways to sort out the best picks since they have all worked well so far, but im not sure if that will continue. i also dont like days with so many games cause theres a little bit too much information to analyse

khudobin starts for bruins and montoya for winnipeg, both are bad for our predictions. enroth starts for buffalo which is really good for devils. but none of those 3 were really bet-worthy, i put in a few fun bets on them though

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 08 Mar 2013, 05:32

thursdays results
second losing day i believe for a -21,7% profit and its one i felt like we really should have made profit on as the flyers were leading 4-1 after 1st but still managed to lose and bryzgalov is now another goalie that i will manually have to take into account because flyers keep losing because of him.

5/8 matches mentioned were correct overall as 4/5 not quite bet-worthy matches won. i actually made money today as my fun bets covered the losses of model recommended bets. as those were quite small for me this time because i was pretty unsure about them in the first place, but still the model not winning stings me the most!

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 08 Mar 2013, 14:19

a much more manageable day today. yesterday 18 of 198 possible indicators told to bet and i didnt really have time to do research on all of them. today only 1 indicator of 90 fired up, making throughout research wayyyy easier. i can even tell you all about the indicator and let you decide what to do.

fridays predictions
chicago against colorado at 1,68 gave an indicator that has worked like this so far in the season:
indicator has suggested to bet on 35 teams
12 (34,3%) of those teams have won in regulation for a profit of -2,428%
21 (60%) have won in regulation or ot/s0 for a profit of 25%

that indicator is not one of the best ones i have and sharp is injured for chicago, so that match gets a not bet-worthy verdict from me but ill do a small fun bet anyway and hope to ride the chicago train again.

better but not bet-worthy:
nashville against edmonton, 1,6 odds

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 09 Mar 2013, 15:16

fridays results
meh, 1/2 but no bet-worthy matches yesterday.

saturdays predictions
lets hope we get back on track after a couple of not so great days

bet-worthy:
los angeles against calgary, 1,5 odds
columbus against detroit, 2,3 odds

close but not bet-worthy:
montreal against tampa, 1,94

all in all the odds reflect the possible outcomes pretty well today and not too many indicators turned on, which is actually good because its a crappy model if it suggests betting on half of the matches

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 10 Mar 2013, 09:37

saturdays results
nice day, all recommendations won for 90% profit

in fact the columbus and la victories were very convincing and im pretty sure not many nhl betting tipsters have ridden the columbus win streak like this. i also made fun bets for montreal and islanders so all my bets for yesterday paid off.

Asmodian · Post by **Asmodian** » 10 Mar 2013, 09:39

I have been placing bets based on your predictions and now I am broke and wandering the streets.

Sincerely,

Asmo

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 10 Mar 2013, 13:42

sundays predictions
it would usually be better to watch betting line movements, goalie starters and such things a little longer and place bets later in the day but i usually want to get these predictions over with so here we go again

bet-worthy:
chicago against edmonton, 1,45
islanders vs pittsburgh, 2,8
minnesota vs vancouver, 1,98

good but not bet-worthy:
philadelphia against buffalo, 1,71
detroit vs columbus, 1,54

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 11 Mar 2013, 05:01

sundays results
crappy day and i really need to ponder some of the results and compare them with the model
1/3 bet-worthy matches won for -33% profit and 2\5 recommendations overall. islanders was a huge underdog pick of course so cant be too upset that it didnt go through, but chicago losing against edmonton at home was really annoying (92% home win% vs 29% road win%).

i think today ill make a summary of the results so far and see if i will continue posting these predictions

par73 · Post by **par73** » 11 Mar 2013, 05:17

statistics, you can judge and judge but there must always be room for error.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 11 Mar 2013, 14:02

Predictions havent gone so great lately so its a good time to do a summary of bets so far, there might be some mistakes as i did this pretty fast but here it goes (these profits have been calculated assuming that you bet the same amount on each match):

i have given bet-worthy status for 20 matches
out of those 8 (40%) have won in regulation for a profit of 0,1%
12 (60%) have won in regulation or ot/so for a profit of 16,2%

overall i have mentioned 60 matches
out of those 28 (46,6%) have won in regulation for a profit of 8%
38 (63,3%) have won in regulation or ot/so for a profit of 13,5%

obviously a sample size of 20 isnt enough to draw too big conclusions. 16,2% profit certainly isnt horrible but im hoping for better. this season is the first when im using these exact models so i have faith that in time the profit will get better (although they were backtested using the last 3 seasons, but there were no manual interventions that time, ie i couldnt think myself and make decisions on how to bet). one big problem is that i dont really have enough time to go over matches closely enough especially on saturdays and sundays when there are about 10 matches and im busy as it is.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 11 Mar 2013, 14:42

mondays predictions
i urge you not to follow these crappy predictions. both matches look like they are bet-worthy:

los angeles vs calgary, 1,54 odds (might be worth it even with odds as low as 1,46-1,47 but im giving the pinnacle odds right now)
ottawa vs bruins, 2,36 odds (certainly not worth it with lower odds)

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 11 Mar 2013, 19:10

just to give some perspective, chicago certainly wasnt a bad recommendation.

https://www.facebook.com/ZcodeNHLpicks
"Still, with five star support from Z-Code and a 73% chance for victory, it's all systems go on the BLackhawks today. I'll be treading with caution, but I'm still in the water.
Low-Med Confidence
Blackhawks 3 - Oilers 2"

i actually make several predictions for a team but here are some of the predicted probabilities my models had:
0,7410679305 0,7226389501 0,7522973307 0,734815366 0,7685708945 0,743320661
so pretty much around the same probabilities as zcode for example, and with that probability the match should be profitable in the long term

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 12 Mar 2013, 14:47

mondays results
1/2 correct although we were a shootout loss away from both bets winning. now that we have more data im not going to count daily profits anymore but rather total profits, which are now about 12% (22 bets placed, 13 won)

tuesdays predictions
medium confidence picks:
colorado against edmonton, 1,76
st. louis against san jose, 1,76
columbus against vancouver, 2,33

small confidence picks:
minnesota vs anaheim, 1,92
boston vs pittsburgh, 2,2
carolina vs washington, 2,05

yes ill probably put some money on all 6 matches

other matches arent bet-worthy

dac · Post by **dac** » 12 Mar 2013, 15:57

anaheim has been TERRIBLE @ minnesota historically. bet that one at 192 for sure

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 13 Mar 2013, 06:23

tuesdays predictions
oh man things really arent going my way now. 2/6 predictions correct and 3 of the losing ones were pretty bad, as columbus lost in the SO, boston was leading 2-0 but pittsburgh scored 3rd peried goals at 13:42, 14:33, 17:57 to get the win and minnesota also lost with a goal at 16:56 in the 3rd.
i will count the profits later but if this keeps going on, i will have to do some adjustments to the model or indicators.

Asmodian · Post by **Asmodian** » 13 Mar 2013, 09:59

Do you actually follow hockey or just base your bets purely off of your formula?

I messed around with sports betting a little bit when I was living in Nevada for an internship and got all the bets I placed right (8 or so I think). If you actually follow the sport(pay attention to injuries,slumps,player match ups) and bet conservatively I bet you could come out on top like 85%+ of the time.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 13 Mar 2013, 20:10

nhl is notoriously hard to predict and you wont be anywhere near 85% unless you bet very rarely and on very heavy favourites and then you would get bad odds. if you could be anywhere near 85% betting on matches with all sorts of odds you would make a ridiculous amount of money. and betting isnt only about the win %. its pointless to throw numbers like 85% without knowing the odds. i will never be anywhere near that betting on columbus but i still feel that there is value to be found from their matches. but nhl being hard to predict doesnt necessarily mean that its harder to make profits betting on nhl because the odds reflect the uncertainty too.

i will however alter my betting strategy and put stricter rules in place starting from today. before i had several indicators that had produced about 10-15% profits from the last previous 3 seasons and had also worked this season, so i thought what the hell, even 10% profit is better than nothing. but as they have failed lately, i will just follow them but will not post predictions unless stricter rules are met. i think these new rules will produce about 1/5 as many bets as i have previously posted.

this season also seems to add a different kind of 'tiredness' factor as the schedule is really tight due to the lockout and some teams keep losing badly after having a week or so of really tight schedule. my model doesnt adequately take this into account so i will manually have to think about this as well.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 13 Mar 2013, 20:23

wednesdays predictions
as per new rules, none of the 3 matches is even close to being bet-worthy today
montreal at 1,55 is possibly the best option, maybe ill make a fun bet of a couple of euros.
detroit at 1,9 is the 2nd most profitable option but not even good enough for a fun bet.

switch · Post by **switch** » 13 Mar 2013, 20:54

A friend of mine was wondering if the lockout had any impact on the accuracy of the model?

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 13 Mar 2013, 21:10

its impossible to say right now but obviously id suspect that this season probably differs more from your average season than any randomly picked normal season and id feel more comfortable using the models on a normal one. that tiredness factor is just one thing i can think of from the top of my head and id probably have to calculate and test several new 'tight schedule' variables and test them to see if the effects are different this season.

but i wont do a real analysis before the end of the season because it takes time and its better to have as many observations as possible to get accurate results anyway. then i will decide if i want to alter the models based on this year's results or not

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 14 Mar 2013, 16:14

wednesdays results
my only bet won but nothing was close to bet-worthy

thursdays predictions
only 1 bet-worthy match out of 11
minnesota against colorado at 1,7 and even this is small confidence so dont bet too big

better but not bet-worthy
anaheim against dallas, 2 (this would be bet-worthy if not for perrys suspension and lehtonen's great play)
columbus against chicago, +1,5 spread
boston against florida, 1,39
pittsburgh against toronto, 1,75
carolina against washington, 1,63

Cutard · Post by **Cutard** » 14 Mar 2013, 16:33

Tirri, I am putting our long friendship on the line and guaranteeing a Chicago victory tonight. Actually, not just a victory, I am guaranteeing a slaughter. It will be a biblical reckoning of such proportions that all the sports stations and blogs and podcasts will be talking about implementing a mercy rule because Chicago just systematically destroyed a professional hockey team's will to ever hold a stick again.

Guaranteed.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 14 Mar 2013, 17:05

i agree. columbus vs chicago has me thinking and i probably wont even make a fun bet on columbus +1,5

motivational factors must always be thought of and i have a feeling chicago will come up big this time even though statistics tell me that columbus +1,5 would be the best option

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 15 Mar 2013, 07:04

thursdays results
great day as 5/6 predictions were right overall. cu was wrong as usual and my recommendation for columbus was correct too. too bad i didnt follow my own prediction, got greedy and went for columbus win in reg/ot/so, not +1,5 like i recommended.

im happy about the model in general today. in fact had i followed the teams that the model gave an edge to, i would have gotten san jose, vancouver, islanders, winnipeg and st. louis correct too so this was a big confidence boost for the model. too bad i had just made all the rules much tighter.
the only loss was actually carolina vs washington where carolina outshot washington badly but washington got a good game from neuvirth which has been pretty rare this season so i gladly stand behind that pick as well!

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 15 Mar 2013, 13:56

fridays predictions
no match is even close to being bet-worthy

good but no bet:
detroit against edmonton, 1,9
calgary against nashville, 1,84

pinnacle like many other bookies dont offer odds for those 2 teams yet, so if the odds for detroit or calgary happen to be significantly better than the odds i mentioned here, the teams might be worth a small fun bet or something

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 15 Mar 2013, 20:00

update:
i was going to do my fun bets in the evening but both odds have gone down with detroit being and 1,88 and calgary at 1,74. i think that nashville might actually be preferable with 1,74 odds for calgary and pinnacles 2,25 for nashville.
-> i think this is the first day in a while im not even going to bother with fun bets

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 16 Mar 2013, 16:37

saturdays predictions
annoyingly hard day to predict but here goes:

bet-worthy:
st. louis vs anaheim, 1,8
detroit against vancouver, +1,5 spread
winnipeg vs toronto, 2,22 (small confidence)

good but not bet-worthy:
columbus vs phoenix, 1,95
carolina vs tampa, 1,95
minnesota vs colorado, 1,99
pittsburgh vs rangers, 1,58
ottawa vs buffalo, 2,08
los angeles vs san jose, 1,65
boston vs washington, 1,45

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 17 Mar 2013, 05:06

saturdays results
oh jebus. a ridiculously awesome day with only carolina vs tampa losing for 3/3 bet-worthies and 9/10 overall!!

i made an 8 match parlay with st. louis, detroit, winnipeg, columbus, carolina, los angeles, boston, ottawa and carolina that amounted to odds of 113. so carolina losing reaaaalllllly sucks for me but no matter, i got money from all other matches

switch · Post by **switch** » 17 Mar 2013, 08:44

I can confirm that these saturday predictions blew away my sports watching colleagues. I showed them odds prior to matches and there was some (some) skepticism. No longer.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HQaBWziYvY[/youtube]

^ Video related, it's what happened when I tried to publish Tirri's NHL predictions.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 17 Mar 2013, 15:11

sundays predictions
no bet-worthy matches today

good but not bet-worthy:
boston against pittsburgh, 2,23 (this is actually almost bet-worthy according to the model, but the match contradicts my manual rule of not betting against pittsburgh because its obvious the model doesnt fully work with them and pittsburgh is now on an 8 game winning streak).

slightly better but not very close to bet-worthy:
winnipeg against ottawa, 2,16
nashville against edmonton, 2,05

i will probably make small fun bets on all three matches but nothing serious. by the way, i want to clarify on what i mean with good but not bet-worthy. usually all the matches that i mention in these posts are profitable according to the model. but there is always error in the model predicted probabilities and its hard to say how big it is, so there are a lot of matches where there should be value but i dont like making real recommendations for them. i however have no problems betting small amounts of money on the matches i mention, because as i said, i find that there should be value there.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 18 Mar 2013, 05:47

sundays results
really bad after a great day although 2/3 of the recommendations werent even the usual "good but not bet-worthy" but a new category i invented of "slighty better but not very close to bet-worthy". but i will count these in my results post too that ill make in a few days.
i was a bit sceptical cause all the recommendations were road teams this time and sure enough all the winners today were home teams. i still maintain that boston at those odds against vokoun was worth it but still my predictions had them winning at about 45-46% so it was hardly a sure thing

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 18 Mar 2013, 15:06

mondays predictions
no bet-worthy matches

good but not bet-worthy:
los angeles vs phoenix, 1,6
chicago vs colorado, 1,67

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 18 Mar 2013, 19:46

here is a nifty page where handicappers can essentially sell their picks for some amount of money.
http://www.pickmonitor.com/handicappers

the system is done quite well with good and easy to read data. i just wanted to link this here to better demonstrate the absurdity of asmodians 85% winning percent comment. just sort the list by eWP (effective Winp) which is pretty close to actual winp, or click on any handicapper that has made profit and check his page for the actual winp. the guy with the best roi for example has a winp of 65,66%

i will do another status update on winning percents and stuff when a whole month is through so maybe on the 25th or something like that

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 19 Mar 2013, 05:16

mondays results
nice routine victories but theres always room for speculation. easy 5-2 and 4-0 wins kind of make you think if going for regulation win or even -1,5 spread with much higher odds would have been better. its a bit hard to examine this though cause i cant think of a clear rule on when to bet for reg win. all i can say is that in general i have found that including ot/so wins has been more profitable with my indicators. last saturday for example would have been a crappy day for me had i only bet regulation wins since 4 of the recommended teams won in ot or so.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 19 Mar 2013, 08:56

tuesdays predictions
bet-worthy:
montreal vs buffalo, 1,53 (medium confidence)
los angeles vs phoenix, 1,57 (small confidence)
new jersey vs rangers, 1,82 (small confidence)

good but not bet-worthy:
columbus vs nashville, 1,85
pittsburgh vs washington, 1,44 (i put a small bet in without knowing if letang plays or not. if he doesnt, i wouldnt bet at all)
st. louis vs vancouver, 2,15

on a side-note im really happy how the model finds different kinds of value picks. there have been several days where the heavy favourites have only been "good but not bet-worthy" while heavy underdogs have been bet-worthy. this kind of betting causes volatility of course and im happy that quite often the model also suggests heavy favourites like today for example.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 20 Mar 2013, 04:51

tuesdays predictions
losing day as my bet-worthy predictions keep doing a little worse than the good but not bet-worthy recommendations for 1/3 and 3/6 overall. its usually pretty easy to predict the dominating team but harder to predict bad goaltending and/or luck. this time all the three losing teams significantly outshot their opponents but got .864, .857 and .842 goaltending efforts. cant blame myself too much about montreal as it had a pretty high consensus among handicappers who are winning money, but i should have known to stay away from devils. as you may remember i had already decided not to bet on them but once again their other good parameters had me fooled and devils is now probably the team i have lost most money on.

this was a pretty hard day in general and i was happy i managed to dodge both carolina and boston which im sure got a lot of bets, but in the end montreal losing screwed the day up.

hehe i had already counted los angeles vs phoenix as a victory as they were leading 2-0 with 8 mins to go and phoenix havent scored a single road goal in several games. the game is 2-2 now though so instead of being a crappy day this might end up being a horrible day with 0/3 bet-worthy matches

double edit: oh nhl web page just screwed up and it was a los angeles goal for 3-1 instead. thats good then

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 20 Mar 2013, 10:01

wednesdays predictions
well this was an easy day as out of 90 possible indicators only 2 went on. no bet-worthy matches today
ill probably make a fun bet for chicago but i dont really see value there either

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 20 Mar 2013, 19:20

hehe i have an annoying confession to make. i have preciously little time to do data mining on the model results, or to research new models or to make new indicators for the existing models. today however it occurred to me that i should check how well the models would have been doing without any interference from me at all. i have been checking individual indicators quite a lot but now i just checked what happens if i just bet on a team any time even a single indicator says to go for it.

the results would have been 120 bets, 81 wins (67,5%) and a 28,175% profit overall. ie significantly better than the results i've had when i tinker with the model manually. and these profits have been calculated using unibet odds so essentially it would have been possible to find better odds at least 90% of the time for higher profits. so this is a serious blow to my skills as a handicapper but very good news model-wise.

just to give a few examples. had i only used the indicators on that great 9/10 saturday last weekend, the results would have been an even better 7/7 and my awesome parlay would have hit home. and crappy yesterday would have gone 5/8 for 20% profit.

sooooo a new betting strategy and new bet-worthy matches for today:

wednesdays predictions
chicago against anaheim, 1,9
tampa vs toronto, 2,2

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 21 Mar 2013, 04:34

wednesdays predictions
way to collect 2 losses that i had already decided not to bet on, but the burden of decision has been lifted from me as i only follow the model now. it has done better than me in 120 matches so far so ill just keep following it. shame that chicago lost as they were leading 2-1 with less than 6 mins to go but shit happens

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 21 Mar 2013, 12:34

thursdays predictions
even though yesterday (and the day before) were crappy, i still maintain that the model does a better job without me medling with it. besides this is much easier for me, so here goes. all the model approved matches and possible fractions of your bankroll to bet with (just for guidance on which match id bet more or less on)

bet-worthy matches:
ottawa vs boston, 2,22 (0,025)
nashville vs calgary, 1,66 (0,05)
los angeles vs dallas, 1,52 (0,05)
rangers vs florida, 1,45 (0,02)
montreal vs islanders, 1,81 (0,015)
new jersey vs carolina, 2,05 (0,02)
phoenix vs vancouver, 1,92 (0,03)

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 22 Mar 2013, 05:14

thursdays results
oh lord, its one of those stretches where no close game goes my way. 3/7 correct with both ottawa and phoenix losing close games 2-1 while los angeles and rangers lost after doubling their opponents in shots for but dallas and florida got ridiculous performances from lehtonen (40/40) and markstrom (44/45). what can i say, la and rangers were basically considered the two most profitable targets today among handicappers with a winning record but these kind of days happen and it will even out in the long run.

almost a week worth of crappy results now so i have pretty much gone into negative profits with the predictions ive posted here though im still comfortably in the green during the whole season. ill just keep posting model recommended matches from now on and see how the results are at the end of the season

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 22 Mar 2013, 05:18

again, just to show im not completely of the mark with these predictions, here is the zcode recommendation for the rangers game:

NHL Featured Game: New York Rangers Vs Florida Panthers

It seems too good to be true, and if Henrik Lundqvist is in net I truly cannot find a reason to avoid this game. Even at this steep price, the New York Rangers look great.

The Panthers have seen injuries derail an already mediocre season, while goaltending troubles continue to bring them down. On the road, it's hard to imagine them playing a suddenly-hot Rangers team.

New York seems to have gotten back on the right track. It's all systems go for me on this one, even at -220.

Z-Code gives the NY Rangers 70% to win ML, 5-star support, and high-confidence ML pick. Surprisingly enough, line movement FAVORS the Rangers.

Can you think of why not to bet this game? I wouldn't bet the house - anything can happen in hockey, Markstrom is a talented young kid, and the Rangers could be a little bit tired... but I expect a win here.

Rangers 3 - Panthers 1
High Confidence ML play with Z-Code support.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 22 Mar 2013, 07:10

fridays predictions
it doesnt look like things are getting easier for the model but ill just post the suggestions anyway

columbus vs calgary, 1,72 (0,02)
detroit vs anaheim, 2,4 (0,01)
islanders vs pittsburgh, 2,4 (0,01)

if i were to make manual changes, i wouldnt bet on detroit or islanders (i dont feel like betting against teams that are playing amazingly like anaheim or pittsburgh can be profitable in the long run) and the bet on columbus would be quite small and only if bobrosvky starts. however im not doing manual changes anymore, im just following what kind of results the model gives

par73 · Post by **par73** » 22 Mar 2013, 14:03

if tirri still put this much effort and thought into myth he'd be the best.