tirris daily nhl predictions

[tirri]

i hate predicting stanley cup winners and my model doesnt help there as it only predicts the outcome of single matches. not predicting the clear favorites would be foolish, the goal differential alone tells which teams are the best

so i say pittsburgh from east with boston having a chance for upset. chicago from the west and st. louis and san jose with a shot too.
predicting the winner of the finals is even harder since no cross conference matches were played this season but my gut feeling says that pittsburgh and chicago would be pretty even

[tirri]

sunday was a nice example on how not to bet!

the pittsburgh vs islanders and chicago vs minnesota games were early games and i figured i'd watch them and bet a little just to make things more fun. i had a gut feeling that penguins and chicago arent worth it with those odds at road but still i felt like they are the more probable winners. i hate betting for the underdog if im watching the game because losing often isnt fun even if i know that ill make profit if the underdog wins for example 40% of the time.

so first i made -1,5 spread and moneyline bets on pittsburgh without the model even when i had a feeling it wouldnt be profitable in the long run. i lost money because penguins didnt beat the spread and then made -1,5 spread and moneyline bets on chicago to cover the losses i made on penguins, again feeling that those bets wouldnt be profitable in the long run but that chicago was still the more probable winner. well chicago ended up losing so i lost both bets.

i dont care about the money as i bet very small but this is a good example on why most handicappers lose money and why it's possible to be a smart haindicapper and make money betting. i didnt do any of this kind of stupid stuff when the regular season was going on. it was very easy to just follow the model, even with big underdogs, because i was quite certain that using the model will be profitable. i will restrain myself and not bet on playoffs anymore because losing money like this without good winp estimates is just silly

[tirri]

the nhl playoffs are shaping up to be very interesting!

i really like that san jose beat vancouver and im also happy that ottawa is doing so well against montreal.

i must retract my prediction about pittsburgh. after watching their sunday game and seeing the score yesterday, they cant be considered favorites in the east anymore. they have now blown 4-2 and 4-3 leads in the third period against the 8th seeded islanders and especially sundays game was horrible in that regard even though they managed to win it in overtime. they dont seem to be able to freeze the game at all and play safe with a lead and even if they somehow managed to get to the sc finals, i cant see them beating any of chicago, st. louis/los angeles, san jose. but i have to admit that with the way islanders have been playing lately, they cant really be considered a crappy 8th seed team. pittsburgh should probably consider starting vokoun from now on since fleurys recent playoff performances are just horrible


edit:
i just checked fleurys playoff stats and he actually hasnt had over .900 sv in playoffs in the last 4 season which is completely unacceptable and its hard to argue how vokoun could possibly do worse but i doubt they will go for it anyway since fleury has obviously been established as the go-to-guy

[par73]

well playoff games are completely different atmospheres than regular season games; it would be foolish to take correlations between the two so seriously

[pallidice]

who cares about ur predictions now.... canucks lost playoffs without a single win those inconsistant....

GG