tirris daily nhl predictions

[dac]

still not sure why a finnish man would bet AGAINST teemu.

[tirri]

anaheim this season is a pretty interesting team stat-wise. theres some good discussion about their stats along with a lot of trolling here http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... ?t=1380277

basically there are some stats that say anaheim is overachieving a lot and my model seems to think so too. its a shame because it almost never tells to bet on them and im missing a lot of wins because of it but without reliable win% estimates its very hard to determine if the odds given for anaheim are profitable or not so i dont want to bet on them blindly. as i have noticed that the model doesnt work on them right now, i just manually added a rule of "dont bet against anaheim". but like i said, now manual rules are off and im just going by what the model says

[tirri]

fridays results
well some retribution for the model with nice columbus and detroit wins and even islanders only lost 4-2 with 1 empty netter while outshooting pittsburgh so it wasnt a bad try with 2,45 odds. too bad i dont think anyone actually put a lot of money riding on these with such a string of bad results earlier this week

[tirri]

saturdays predictions
its a betting hullabaloozah as i will only follow the model again

boston v toronto, 1,7 (0,01)
montreal v buffalo, 1,5 (0,04)
minnesota vs san jose, 1,74 (0,02)
st. louis vs edmonton, 1,76 (0,04)
ottawa vs tampa, 1,72 (0,01)
los angeles vs vancouver, 1,7 (0,02)
new jersey vs florida, 1,5 (0,01)

interestingly only heavy favourites were offered today and my gut feeling says that so far the model has actually been much more profitable with underdogs. a little worryingly the best bets today should be montreal and st. louis with price and halak starting. im not worried about those teams outperforming their opponents but i am worried about the goaltenders. still im hoping we cant always get .850 efforts when betting on favourites.

[Cutard]

I think I'll counter tirri's model with GUT INSTINCT PICKS, i'm @ 50% at those, I've made two.

Games have been and are going on but I honestly haven't looked at any scores:

boston > toronto
montreal > buffalo
minnesota > san jose
st louis > edmonton - tempted to pick the oilers because they are imo a fringe playoff team and should become a bit scary in a few years.
ottawa < tampa - st louis is adorable
LA > vancounver - LA are monsters again
NJ > Flordia -brodeur back from enlarged prostate



annnd looked at the scores, ahaha

[tirri]

saturdays predictions
this was pretty much a break even day with 4/7 correct, although again i meddled with the model and to the wrong direction. the model didnt recommended boston while giving the nashville a go but i made some decision of my own for those matches. im seriously pretty daft as i keep making the predictions worse and i really have to stop as 5/7 would have been a nice day already.

the same trend also keeps going on where i only win matches that arent very close while losing seemingly almost every 1 goal game. LA lost 1-0 while allowing mere 13 shots, boston lost 3-2 with 33 shots for and 13 against and montreal lost 2-1 with 39 shots for and 18 against. with those odds you have to win about 65% of the time to break even and i feel like in the long run those matches will win about 65% of the time but this week has been pretty unlucky in close games

[tirri]

sundays predictions
detroit vs anaheim, 2,38 (0,01)
winnipeg vs tampa, 1,68 (0,02)
rangers vs washington, 1,55 (0,01)

as you can see from the fractions, there are no prime candidates for betting, so small bets only

[tirri]

i started this thread on 24th february and its 24th march today. tomorrow will be a good day for a complete recap and a little discussion on where to go from here. not sure if i have time but ill try to do it tomorrow!

[tirri]

sundays results
ok with the highest confidence pick winning along with 2,35 odds for detroit although im really hoping for some perfect days after last weeks rough strech



recap after one month

some disclaimers about the results
- these myth forum recommendations are hardly my number one priority in bookkeeping, so there might be some errors
- all profits have been calculated under the assumption that every single bet is the same size. this of course is not a valid betting strategy but i am a little hesitant on giving advices on the amount of money you should bet or how i should go about it
- all profits have been calculated from unibet odds so at least 90% of the time there would have been a more profitable option available
- when i say model recomended matches (which means that at least 1 of the indicators i use lights up for the team in question), the indicators havent been optimized for this season at all. its always very easy to do some data mining afterwards and be all like "oh well had i used indicators like this and this i would have easily gotten 150% profit". i have done nothing like this, ie the indicators were made while backtesting previous seasons. then the indicators that worked on all of them were picked and they have been used for this season with no tinkering.

bet-worthy status:
58 recommendations
25 (43,1%) have won in regulation for 5% profit
32 (55,2%) have won in reg/ot/so for 4,7% profit

all mentioned matches in total:
121 recommendations
57 (47%) have won in regulation for 8,1% profit
74 (61,2%) have won in reg/ot/so for 9,8% profit

all model recommended matches without manual intervention during 24 feb - 24 march
108 matches recommended by the model
51 (47,2%) have won in regulation for 14,9% profit
68 (63%) have won in reg/ot/so for 18% profit

all model recommended matches for the whole season (i started using the model when all teams had played over about 12 games
which was feb 15th)
139 matches recommended by the model
69 (49,6%) have won in regulation for 22,5% profit
91 (65,5%) have won in reg/so/ot for 24,3% profit


so, what to make of these? they are hardly amazing but for the first month in using completely new models im relatively satisfied. you could see that as i dont quite know yet how the model actually performs, my betting strategies have changed several times during this month only. first from "mostly use the model with some manual intervention" into "use the model with very heavy intervention" into a complete 360 "only follow the model as i suck at interventions". and quite honestly even a month is such a short time that i have no idea which of these approaches would be the best in the long run but for now im happy to just use the model.

you may notice that the win% in the "all mentioned matches" and "all model recommended matches" are pretty close (61,2% v 63%) but still the latter's profits are much better. this is because the model recommended matches have had higher odds with a better win%.
76/121 = 62,8% of the mentioned matches have had odds under 1,9, while 57/108 = 52,7% of the model recommended matches have had odds under 1,9. so in short, the model has so far found underdogs with a better win rate than i have found favourites with my manual interventions

the second thing to note is that my bet-worthy status was complete crap compared to the other groups. this is because at first i gave a bet-worthy status only if several indicators lit up. this is actually a wrong approach because if several indicators show significantly higher win% than the odds reflect, then most often it means that for that particular match my models arent taking something into account. i had actually learned this before with an older model too but was blinded at first because i thought these models were better and that i didnt have to take this into account. reading some papers on sport forecasting this is actually somewhat common, ie when you optimize the indicator, you usually find a range for the indicator, for example bet if (a<predicted win%<b), so not just bet if (a<predicted win%)

but overall as the model has given 24,3% profit (with a good number of bets in 139) im quite comfortable in following it for now and maybe just try to make some better indicators or optimize my betting strategies in the summer. the biggest question now is will the indicators work as well during the last games of the season. the season can pretty much be split up into 3 different times that are quite different from each other. the first 15 games the parameters are still settling in as the teams are finding their groove, games number 15-60 or something like that are the long, slow grind and then come the final games. then there are teams that have already mailed it in because they cant make the playoffs, the teams that are fighting for a playoff spot and finally the teams that have already comfortably secured a spot. i havent had the time to check if the models work as well during the last part of the season and its a shame that because of the lockout i only had about 20 games for the "slow grind" period

i wont be making play off predictions as it is a completely diffenrent game

[tirri]

mondays predictions
late update sorry
nashville vs edmonton, 1,62 (0,03)
chicago vs los angeles, 1,65 (0,025)
new jersey vs ottawa, 2,2 (0,01)
boston vs toronto, 1,45 (0,04)

new jersey lights up the indicators like a christmas tree but my model doesnt know about kovalchuk being hurt. but im not doing any manual corrections and it might just as well be that the market has overreacted to the injury so i still listed new jersey there too although not with the confidence id normally list it at

[tirri]

mondays results
2/4 and a profitable day as i follow the fractions i gave so the biggest 2 bets won. i feel like i dodged a bullet with bostons SO win though because it would have been a horrible day with a loss there and i was expecting boston to be much more dominant. however chicago lost 4-5 with a goal at 18:33 in the third and new jersey lost in the SO with only 14 shots against so as a whole luck pretty much evened out today

tuesdays predictions
this is a really interesting day as there are a lot of underdogs offered but i dont have time to do any nitfy deep analysis here
chicago vs calgary, 1,42 (0,01) this would be much higher if hossa was back already
st. louis vs edmonton, 1,45 (0,03)
montreal vs pittsburgh, 2,3 (0,015)
islanders vs washington, 2,28 (0,015)
florida vs toronto, 2,45 (0,01)


oh i forgot to add, all those underdog picks might be better for a +1,5 spread but since im not keeping statistics on those, ill let them stay like that on those recommendations. i havent laid any bets today yet so it might be that ill go for +1,5 in my own wagers

[tirri]

tuesdays results
2/5 and an all too familiar day puck possession-wise as my heavy favourite st. louis outshot edmonton badly but got blanked by a 43/43 effort. meanwhile all of my heavy underdog picks outshot their opponents but 2 lost close one goal games. you may have realized by now that shots for and against are very good predictors at goals scored and thats why the model keeeps offering matches where my recommended team will shoot more than the opposition. still lately i have lost so many favored games against monster goalie performanes (+40 saves) or close underdog defeats where the underdog outshoots the opponent but loses by a goal or in the SO that if this trend continues, i have to investigate the reasons a little more

i should of course have gone +1,5 spread on those underdogs for a 4/5 day but got greedy. i have a gut feeling that a lot of my underdogs have been victorious with +1,5 spread but as i dont collect +1,5 odds, i have no way of researching its profitability

[tirri]

wednesdays predictions
ill go on my easter trip and probably wont have time to make predictions or at least analyse them enough in the next 3-4 days

very low confidence:
montreal vs boston, 2,45 (this just reeks of a 2-1 boston win with the way the last week has been going but again, i just feel like there should be value here with those odds)
colorado vs calgary, 2,15 (veeeery low condifence as colorado is the worst road team in nhl)

these dont have model backing them up but i just like them
san jose vs anaheim, 1,78
minnesota vs phoenix, 1,69


edit: colorados odds have dropped to 2 so scratch that recommendation, they arent worth it with those odds

[tirri]

wednesdays predictions
finally a day where something goes my way. i know montreal got a little lucky but thats all you need once in a while to make it profitable with 2,45 odds. all my other bets also won as i didnt bet on colorado cause the odds had gone down too much when i actually got to laying bets, but í did made bet on san jose and minnesota

i might not be able to do predictions today. so long

[tirri]

thursdays predictions

short and late update
florida
carolina
st. louis
columbus +1,5
rangers

[Myrk]

what odds for these?

[tirri]

thursdays predictions
horrible day but i didnt have time to analyse these anyway and made very small bets. might not have time today either

[tirri]

fridays predictions
chicago v anaheim, 1,57 (0,02)
devils v tampa, 2 (0,01)
minnesota v dallas, 1,88 (0,01)

[tirri]

fridays predictions
heh im literally just collecting losses with amazing accuracy now so it would actually be better to go agaisnt what i predicit. i will now take a break from these posts and re-evaluete the models

[tirri]

after a rejuvenating easter im back on the saddle and developing new betting strategies. i got a little unlucky in the past few days i posted predictions here, but i kept making predictions on pickmonitor and randomness corrected itself once again for quite good last couple of days although the first two days there were the same predictions i posted here so my overall profits arent great so far.

3/31/13 7:35PM [57] Boston Bruins -1.5 2.95 $100 +$195
3/31/13 6:05PM [55] Los Angeles Kings 1.92 $100 +$100
3/31/13 6:05PM [54] Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5 1.41 $100 +$100
3/30/13 10:05PM [19] Vancouver Canucks 1.71 $100 -$140
3/30/13 7:05PM [14] Montreal Canadiens 1.67 $100 +$100
3/30/13 1:05PM [2] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 2.35 $500 +$675

overall profits:
Period W L P WP eP eWP ROI Z AOP ABS ADP
Game 6 8 +287 42.86 +603 58.63 11.93 0.37 -110 143 3.50


its time consuming to make predictions here so in the future ill probably just make predictions at pickmonitor and if there is an easy summary there that i could just copy/paste, ill just post it here

[tirri]

My Tracked Plays
2* - [6] Montreal Canadiens 1.56 vs Carolina Hurricanes
1* - [6] Montreal Canadiens -1.5 2.70 vs Carolina Hurricanes
1* - [13] Anaheim Ducks 1.91 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [12] Chicago Blackhawks 1.59 vs Nashville Predators

waiting on hossa and sharp news before making chicago bets

shame, no hossa or sharp, would have been a good place to bet big. oh well

[tirri]

nice. also made bets on rangers, devils, detroit and san jose so it seems like i only got devils wrong. shame cause i had a 113 odd fun parlay going. however, here are my pickmonitor stats now:

4/1/13 8:35PM [12] Chicago Blackhawks 1.59 $100 +$100
4/1/13 8:35PM [13] Anaheim Ducks 1.91 $100 +$100
4/1/13 7:35PM [6] Montreal Canadiens 1.56 $200 +$200
4/1/13 7:35PM [6] Montreal Canadiens -1.5 2.70 $100 +$170

Period W L P WP eP eWP ROI Z AOP ABS ADP
Game 10 8 +857 55.56 +1,851 66.68 27.28 1.01 -113 139 3.60

[tirri]

only small bets today
1* - [52] New York Islanders 1.81 vs Winnipeg Jets
1* - [56] Boston Bruins 1.57 vs Ottawa Senators
1* - [58] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 2.37 vs Buffalo Sabres

pittsburgh would have been a good target for a bigger bet but as they are now missing the best player in the world and 2 of their best defenders in martin and letang, that was more of a fun bet than anything else since i have no way of knowing how much those injuries affect their chances of winning

[tirri]

tuesdays results
should have known not to go for pittsburgh, amateurish mistake but still a fine day. too bad i have still been feeling the effects of last weeks bad run and making only small bets which has been evident from the sizes of my pickmonitor picks too. there would have been more money to be made on this 11/13 streak

4/2/13 7:35PM [58] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 2.37 $100 -$100
4/2/13 7:05PM [52] New York Islanders 1.81 $100 +$100
4/2/13 7:05PM [56] Boston Bruins 1.57 $100 +$100

Period W L P WP eP eWP ROI Z AOP ABS ADP
Game 12 9 +957 57.14 +2,153 66.54 27.03 1.10 -114 133 3.50

[tirri]

My Tracked Plays
1* - [8] Anaheim Ducks 1.56 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [10] San Jose Sharks -1.5 3.15 vs Minnesota Wild

[tirri]

wednesdays results
to say that things are going well would be an understatement. im bitter about not betting enough and i probably should have bet on edmonton and rangers too. i was actually just putting a bet on rangers at pinnacle when gaborik got traded and as i pressed submit bets, it informed me that the line was frozen and then i went to bed. then rangers won 6-1, meh

but i will let you marvel the results from the last 5 days:

4/3/13 10:35PM [10] San Jose Sharks -1.5 3.15 $100 +$215
4/3/13 10:05PM [8] Anaheim Ducks 1.56 $100 +$100
4/2/13 7:35PM [58] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 2.37 $100 -$100
4/2/13 7:05PM [52] New York Islanders 1.81 $100 +$100
4/2/13 7:05PM [56] Boston Bruins 1.57 $100 +$100
4/1/13 8:35PM [13] Anaheim Ducks 1.91 $100 +$100
4/1/13 8:35PM [12] Chicago Blackhawks 1.59 $100 +$100
4/1/13 7:35PM [6] Montreal Canadiens -1.5 2.70 $100 +$170
4/1/13 7:35PM [6] Montreal Canadiens 1.56 $200 +$200
3/31/13 7:35PM [57] Boston Bruins -1.5 2.95 $100 +$195
3/31/13 6:05PM [55] Los Angeles Kings 1.92 $100 +$100
3/31/13 6:05PM [54] Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5 1.41 $100 +$100
3/30/13 10:05PM [19] Vancouver Canucks 1.71 $100 -$140
3/30/13 7:05PM [14] Montreal Canadiens 1.67 $100 +$100
3/30/13 1:05PM [2] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 2.35 $500 +$675

[tirri]

thursday
1* - [55] New York Islanders 2.32 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [62] Nashville Predators 1.80 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
1* - [70] Los Angeles Kings 1.58 vs Minnesota Wild

at first glance i thought there are a lot of good opportunities today but more throughout research revealed that this wasnt the case. several teams that i usually like to bet on like boston, montreal and chicago didnt make the cut for one reason or another. for example boston against devils at 1.48 seems too steep when bergeron just got injured

[tirri]

thursdays results
first losing day in a while but no biggie. cant feel too bad about islanders at 2,32 outshooting washington by a lot and then losing in the SO. should have gone for montreal and i need to utilize -1,5 spreads a little more cause both would have won comfortably with los angeles and montreal.

the model also suggested philadelphia against toronto but lately i have been able to add value with manual corrections and in the past the model has overrated philly while underrating toronto so i didnt want to bet. still im just happy when the model gets it right especially on underdogs because i want the model to be good enough to just follow with no manual corrections

[tirri]

fridays predictions
interesting day today

My Tracked Plays
1* - [2] St. Louis Blues -1.5 2.90 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
1* - [2] St. Louis Blues 1.63 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
1* - [10] Anaheim Ducks 1.50 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [10] Anaheim Ducks -1.5 2.50 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [12] San Jose Sharks -1.5 2.15 vs Calgary Flames
1* - [12] San Jose Sharks 1.40 vs Calgary Flames


st. louis vs columbus poses a dilemma! the model always offers teams if it thinks the said team will out-chance its opponent about 2:1 because then betting should be profitable even with low odds. now several really good indicators told to bet on st. louis.

however its also clear that the model overrates some teams and underrates others. st. louis is one of the overrated teams because they have a really good sf/sa ratio for example, but they keep getting stinkers from their goaltenders and i have lost quite a bit of money betting on them since they are obviously a very good team and keep getting low odds but cant win consistenly.. columbus on the other hand is underrated now. the model doesnt think it can sustain giving up 35+ shots and keep getting .950 performances from bobrovsky. bobrovsky had a gp 14, sv .950, gaa 1.49 march and continued with .974 and 1.00 in his first april game so i dont know how long we have to wait for him to return back to earth.

but still, im a sucker for those very profitable indicators and i have been wrongly manually correcting them in the past, so this time i went with st. louis, although the whole game screams a 2-1 columbus victory with something like 14/16 and 35/36 stats for the goaltenders. i dont know if some other handicapper would like +1,5 columbus spread for example

[tirri]

fridays results
break-even day for -$10 at pickmonitor. i dont feel too bad about any of those picks cause they were pretty clearly the best 3 picks and favored among profitable handicappers. anaheim lost after an okey performance but thats always a real possibility against a goalie of lehtonens caliber. san jose only won 2-1 but with the way things have been going for those teams, i happily stand by the -1,5 bet too. good thing st. louis delivered and even beat the spread with a shorthanded empty net goal at 19:59 in the third! glad i followed the model today cause i would have been royally pissed if almost all my other bets would have lost and i wouldnt have followed the one suggestions the model seemed to be most certain of

[dac]

anaheim didnt have getzlaf playing for them - he twisted his knee in the previous game.

it was incredibly disappointing to be in that building. the refs were horrendous and you may want to consider them in your model, and i dont say that just as a fan.

[tirri]

i read somewhere that getzlaf is probable and then didnt give it another thought. i wouldnt have wanted to bet on anaheim had i known he was out cause he is an mvp candidate this season.

saturdays predictions
reaaally bad feeling about some of these but i dont have time to go through these very closely, so ill just follow the model. my recommendation is not betting on these and just seeing how it goes!
1* - [56] Los Angeles Kings -1.5 2.70 vs Edmonton Oilers
1* - [56] Los Angeles Kings 1.57 vs Edmonton Oilers
1* - [64] New Jersey Devils 1.79 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [64] New Jersey Devils -1.5 3.45 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [66] Florida Panthers 2.15 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [70] Vancouver Canucks -1.5 2.10 vs Calgary Flames

[tirri]

saturdays results
seems to be a small profitable day if vancouver beats the spread and they are leading 4-1 now. but i gotta say im mostly dissapointed about this day as i feel there would have eeeeasily been more money made if i had had time to go through everything well but saturday is always a difficult day for me. new jersey and florida could have been avoided and they were the reasons i said i have a bad feeling about these predictions in the first place, while i feel like rangers and islanders wins could have easily been deemed bet-worthy with some research

[tirri]

1* - [4] San Jose Sharks 1.50 vs Dallas Stars
1* - [14] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 2.65 vs Nashville Predators
2* - [14] Chicago Blackhawks 1.54 vs Nashville Predators
1* - [15] Los Angeles Kings 2.15 vs Anaheim Ducks

getzlaf is probably out today so if he indeed does not play, i probably would have wanted to go 2* on LA

[tirri]

sundays results
profitable day again with +65 at pickmonitor but a slightly bitter day still as sharks were already leading 4-2 after the 2nd but lost in the so and kings had a 38 v 22 edge in shots but also lost in the so. still its good that even on a day like this the results are still profitable and truth be told chicago only beat the spread with an empty net goal so some luck went my way too

[tirri]

mondays predictions
the indicators are starting to fail now as the season is nearing its end which is understandable as i made them quite fast and have not refined them at all during the season. i will need to make several tighter filters in the off season. i think ill go easy today with just one bet, even though the model also suggested anaheim and rangers

1* - [54] Boston Bruins 1.45 vs Carolina Hurricanes

[tirri]

mondays results
boston with a clear win and obviously should have gone -1,5 too. too bad i let other opinions influence me and made a last minute bet on rangers who went on to lose so it was -10 dollar day for me at pickmonitor

tuesdays predictions
1* - [8] Montreal Canadiens 1.67 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [8] Montreal Canadiens -1.5 2.95 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [17] Los Angeles Kings 1.71 vs Dallas Stars

i might make a few other bets but those are the best choices for me

[Vantobia]

You have really committed to this I have a question: Are you posting this somewhere else like another forum or just here ?

[tirri]

im posting these just here + im making pickmonitor picks and real money bets of course

tuesdays results
two saddening losses! with most teams having 8 games left to play and a little disappointing week behind me, i think it might be time to stop real money bets and do a summary post here when ive got the time. like i said before, im afraid the models wont work as well at this time of the season but i havent had time to research it so i feel a little iffy using the models. ill possibly still throw some bets on pickmonitor just to keep track there but im not sure if its worth posting them here.

[tirri]

wednesdays predictions
well might as well put these here too but im just betting risky on pickmonitor for fun, im not putting much real money on these

My Tracked Plays
1* - [52] New York Rangers 1.63 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [55] Vancouver Canucks -1.5 2.65 vs Calgary Flames
3* - [55] Vancouver Canucks 1.54 vs Calgary Flames
2* - [60] Anaheim Ducks -1.5 2.35 vs Colorado Avalanche
4* - [60] Anaheim Ducks 1.44 vs Colorado Avalanche

[tirri]

wednesdays predictions
hehe 3/5 but as i decided to raise the stakes a little on anaheim it was a big losing day on pickmonitor. anaheim wasnt even model recommended but i figured the 2nd best home team in the nhl vs by far the worst (colorado had 1 regulation win and 1 overtime win in 20 games before this game) was sure enough money and put 1100$ on anaheim. well colorado won 4-1 for their most lopsided road victory of the season for a total of 3 road vicotries for the season. now my precious pickmonitor stats went from +1200$ profit and almost 20% ROI to +320 profit and 3,47 ROI in 2 days.

well its no biggie as real money bets are off for the season and im using these games mostly to find good filters for my models for next season but still have to admire my stupidity for grinding out 100$ dollar bets for a while and slowly making profits and throwing most of it away on a sure thing that wasnt even profitable according to my research and its a good lesson for real money betting!

i will probably do a double or nothing and go all in with los angeles versus colorado today. one of the best home teams versus the worst and they are playing back to back now. Note: do not bet like this with real money!!!

[NewMutator]

i will probably do a double or nothing and go all in with los angeles versus colorado today. one of the best home teams versus the worst and they are playing back to back now. Note: do not bet like this with real money!!!

Uh oh! I think that means it's time I make a huge real money bet! No pressure tirri, I'm totally with you on this one, buddy!

[dac]

terrible pick.

anaheim has yet to show up against a bad team, they only get up for good teams and rivals, and even then they seem to luck out more wins than they truly earn.

[tirri]

meh, like i said i dont think anaheim was a profitable pick in the long run but i still dont think it was a horrible pick. your assessment on ducks is a little faulty because actually they had lost 1 home game against a non-playoff opponent so far this season (dallas 3-1) and even dallas is only 2 points away from playoffs while colorado is the worst team in the league. it was a lazy bet from me but anaheim was still an overwhelming favorite among handicappers with a winning record.

thursdays predictions
4* - [18] Los Angeles Kings 1.40 vs Colorado Avalanche
5* - [18] Los Angeles Kings -1.5 2.05 vs Colorado Avalanche

here we go again, about 1200 dollars on pickmonitor put on los angeles. so far there have been 9 bets made on pickmonitor, 6 for los angeles -1,5 and 3 for moneyline and all of those handicappers have positive ROI, so obviously im not the only one smelling blood

i might make other picks too but wont have time to check them out until later

[tirri]

thursdays results
well that was quite a scare as LA only won in shootout but i had a victorious day with the LA moneyline pick + montreal moneyline. still this week as a whole has been pretty horrible as i have been making about 2-3 picks a day, mostly favourites and just cant hit even one perfect day.

los angeles was pretty much a perfect spot for -1,5 spread as the defending champs took on the worst team in the nhl, with colorado playing back to back road games and starting a rookie goaltender in his first nhl game. there were 50 picks made on that match in pickmonitor and only 2 of them were for colorado, i also beat the odds nicely as they plummeted nearing game time. everything seemed good when half way through the second LA was leading 2-0 and had 3x as many shots but then they eased up and let colorado back in the game

im just not happy with these small profitable days when several days have been really close to a jackpot!!

[tirri]

friday
not a great day for betting but tomorrow looks like fun. ill make a couple of oversized bets on pickmonitor anyway as im due for 2 favorites both winning their matches

2* - [51] St. Louis Blues 1.87 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
3* - [58] Chicago Blackhawks 1.53 vs Detroit Red Wings

[tirri]

fridays results
+70 dollars and 1/2 again, SIGH. well over a week has been like this, its better than nothing but seriously if i pick 2 favourites both have to go right some time

this day was a horribly annoying day to predict in general with such goalie performances as brodeurs 9/11 (.818), allens 15/19 (.789) and masons 13/18 (.722) efforts. dallas v predators seemed like a good place to bet for dallas when i read that mason starts instead of rinne, but when you know that bachman is starting for dallas (.870 3.48 GAA in 10 games this season) its pretty hard to reliably predict the winner, its more of a coin flip on which goalie shits the bed this time.

[tirri]

saturdays predictions
2* - [2] Colorado Avalanche +1.5 1.45 vs Vancouver Canucks
1* - [12] Washington Capitals 1.59 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
2* - [6] Carolina Hurricanes 2.55 vs Boston Bruins
2* - [14] Florida Panthers +1.5 1.59 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
2* - [22] Los Angeles Kings 1.69 vs Anaheim Ducks

today we go crazyyyh with 3 bets on the three worst teams in the nhl. tomorrow i will either be a god to you or lose miserably. there might be more bets coming, havent had time to go through all matches

[tirri]

saturdays results
a rather nice day with 4/5 predictions right although on pickmonitor i also made a bet on montreal which lost for a +246$ profit day. florida with a painful loss as they lost the spread with a pittspurgh empty net goal 21 seconds before end and ruined a 5/5 day for my forum picks. but all in all even after my ridiculously good streak ended more than a week ago, i still have only had a couple of losing days since then and slowly keep having small profitable days. only that -1100 dollar oversized bet on anaheim keeps weighting my stats down but ill make up for it.

[switch]

What the fuck you bet over a thousand dolla on ANAHEIM? Raises all kinds of questions bro.