Okay I'm rushing the E. conference rankings out in order to get them in before the season starts tonight. The writing might need a little editing later, but these are my reg. season rankings:
1. Hawks
Losing Carol sucks, but Bazemore and Sefolosha (once he gets back from his NYPD broken leg, wtf?) are still a good rotation at the 3 spot. Tim Hardaway Jr sucks on D and is an overated, if still effective shooter, but if he can learn the system he is a good Korver sub at the 2 spot. They addressed their biggest problem vs. the Cavs, which was size, with the Splitter acquisition this summer. I’m really not a big Splitter fan but he already knows their Spursian system and he gives them flexibility. Horford is a natural 4 and Millsap is agile enough to play the 3, so they can go super big with Splitter at the 5. Or, they can go super small with Teague and Shröder at SG and PG respectively. Shröder looked really great in Euroleague and his 3 point shot is starting to develop, so maybe he can shed the “Rondo Jr.” stigma. I don’t think they can get to the finals but all the people who don’t believe they can hit 60 wins again are trippin.
2. Cavs
Mo Williams is the key. He is like the Fog Raw of aging but consistently flashy and good point guards.
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Didn’t he score like 55 points for the Hornets at some point last year? If the Blazers had kept Mo, things would have been different. He won at least one game for the Blazers in that series against the rockets and they cut him loose, for what? For fucking Steve Blake and Chris Kaman? Because they were balding? Because they were white?! Aldridge would have never left if…but I digress…
Seriously, the addition of an actually decent backup point guard is huge for them. He was an All Star along with LeBron, so we know they play well together right? With JR smith the cavs have a 1-2 scoring punch on the bench. Tristan Thompson & Varejao (if he stays healthy) will be great hustling after Mo and JR bricks (sorry I mean “Kobe assists”) and setting them screens they’ll waive away. Still, with LeBron inevitably playing some 4 they are bit crowded up front and shallow in the backcourt, especially with Shumps, their best on ball defender outside of LeBron injured. They are the only real contenders in the East, and will face a Western conference team that has just been severely tested.
If everyone was healthy, they’d just breeze through the east. But with so many injuries—Mozgov, Shumpert, Irving, and Love fresh off one—I really think their start might end up a bit rocky. I think Atlanta beats them in the regular season again, with similar but not Derrick Rose level rapey in the post season.
3. Wizards
I was tempted to put them higher. I know they lost Pierce, who was absolutely clutch in last year’s playoffs, but I think the tru7h rubbed off on the younger players, and it’s easy to forget that it was Wall’s injury that really cost them a trip to the ECF. They have taken a step every year for the past 3 seasons, and with the new emphasis on a smaller, faster lineup that emphasizes Wall and Beal’s skills, they are ready to really challenge for the Eastern trophy. I do think that Dudley can do a lot of what Pierce did for them last year, and Otto Porter really looks like he’s starting to figure things out & may even end up starting at the 3. Out of all the teams in the East, this one is the most likely to challenge LeBron and the Cavs: they are better at 3 out of the 5 positions (though, of course, the drop off between LeBron and their SFs is pretty fuckin significant). Still, I really believe in Wall, who is by far the best PG in the east (yes he is better than Kyrie on both sides of the floor, and much more durable). I think this will be an incredible season for him. Plus, they have Durant to fight for and look forward to. I mean, what more can you say for the fastest player in the league, for whom a 360 layup is a regular move?
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4. Heat
Such an intriguing lineup, but I’m just not sure the pieces fit. Old Wade and Whiteside the behemoth are really half court players, whereas Dragic is a coast to coast guy. Bosh can play with anyone, and he was absolutely killing it before he went down with those out-of-nowhere bloodclots last year. Thibodeau just used Luol Deng up, but hopefully he still has a few fumes to run on. Getting Justise Winslow was a huge coup for them, and alongside McBob they have a better bench than since before the LeBron era. I just don’t see this group really coming together though, 4th seed might even be too high. They have great potential though, and I’ve read about some rumblings of a Winslow + pieces trade for Carmelo, which would definitely catapult them a few slots, and seems realistic considering Pat Riley’s disdain for draftees....but would the Knicks agree to this?!
5. Bucks
I’m not in love with the Monroe acquisition, but he’s younger than people realize so he definitely fits the timeline better than Zaza did. A bit of a liability on defense but all the length and switch defense around him should just let him stand in the middle being in the way, and he is an undeniable post presence. Atempbounkolunkamofuka is really an amazing player to watch; he really could be the next Kevin Durant, a 7 footer with mad guard skills, absolutely unguardable, though he will probably skew a bit more towards defense than Durant does (he could also fall well short of this, of course, but I’m optimistic). Jabari Parker is a great fit on this offensively challenged team, though I do think it will take him a bit longer to recover from the ACL surgery, which usually takes about another year to really come back from (I had this surgery myself so I know). I really love how Jason Kidd has crafted a team that reflects his own ways as a player. Hopefully he can blow some of what turned him into a decent shooter into MCW’s ear. MCW fits perfectly into the long-armed forest of defensive tentacles, but he really needs to step his shooting up: the modern NBA is not kind to non-shooting guards.
6. Bulls
Supposedly they are moving Noah to the bench and will be starting Mirotic and Gasol. I would have benched Pau, not because he isn’t good (had an amazing Renaissance last season and single handedly won Eurobasket for Spain), but because Noah is the heart and soul of this team and a benching will hamper his ability to drive this team with his relentless, shit talking will. Rose like to gangbang innocent young ladies much like he has gangbanged this franchise for cash (though he’s already looking for more such multi-cock cash-extraction in 2017), and he has passive aggressively feuded with Butler—this team’s real best player—for the better part of a year (how is this even possible when neither of them ever even say a word?) Also, he comes off as pretty learning disabled. Without Thibodeau's neurotically iron will to hold things together I forsee a lot of drama and an eventual flame out. There is enough talent here to get them a #6 seed none-the-less, even if it means a humiliating first round defeat to the up and coming Bucks. Perhaps the elegant, if ugly, Pau will write a stirring opera about this season in a few years.
7. Raptors
Lowry is apparently in great shape and has been tearing things up in preseason. But can their already putrid D withstand the loss of Amir Johnson? The Wizards absolutely raped them on the wings last year, like 2 Derrick Rose cocks from either end, and the Carol addition should help with that. But, this means that Valanciunas has to step up (incidentally, I had some Lithuanian friends invite me to watch him play in the Euroleague finals this year...at the local Lithuanian church. Yes he is practically a god among these people, Son of Sabonis). I think he’s ready for this: he was one of the best post up players in the league last year, and has all the tools to be at least OK on defense if given the opportunity. But, in the meantime, the rest of the East has passed them by.
8. Pacers
Ever since Monta Ellis was supplanted by Curry and Thompson in Golden State he’s been passed around the league like a drugged schoolgirl at a Derrick Rose party, but he’s still managed to get incrementally better year after year. He’s a pretty good fit with the suddenly very 90s blonde George Hill: a defensively minded, pass first PG with a flashy SG scorer/ball handler. Most importantly, Paul George is back, and though the dramatic switch in style from lumbering giants to a smaller, speedier system will be painful, I think PG-13s superstar is going to rise again and carry them into the playoffs.
9. Knicks
Putting the Knicks above the Celtics is 30% just to piss par off, but 70% because they have Carmelo as well as a very smart pickup in Robin Lopez, who can protect the rim and hit foul shots even if he’s not spectacular. Afflalo, on the other hand, is a terrible player: plays Kobe style will tons of wing post ups but has never really had the skill to be really effective. Very overrated player. Porzingis is intriguing even if he doesn’t really fit New York as a city, poor kid didn’t deserve to get booed on draft night but I can definitely see how it happened. The few highlights I have seen of him show that he has some really polished mooves from a 19 year old, but he’s already having injuries and does not look like he has NBA muscle or even the potential for such muscle. We’ll see.
10. Celtics
David Lee is overrated and always was, even and especially when he got on the All Star team. Still he fits great with I. Thomas off the bench, they’d be a killer pick and roll combo, but we’ll see if Stevens has the balls to bench a player of his standing. There are too many bigs on this team between Lee, Olynyk, Zeller, Sullinger, and Amir Johnson, much like on the blazers but even worse, so finding minutes for everyone is going to be difficult, especially if they’re going to go small with Crowder at the 4 now and again. Expect a trade. Amir finally gives them a rim protector, which is really big for them. Marcus Smart looks great on D but his offense looks bad: he isn’t even getting to the rim like he did in college. All in all they have a lot of different, complementary skills & a lot of versatility that lets them go super big or super small, but the lack of any transcendent talent is going to bite them in the ass. Unless Ainge makes a big move I see them slipping.
11. Hornets
Batuuuuuuum-shakalaka. Batum will be good for them, with his fruity french dunks and self-satisfied smirks. MKG is a godly defender, much like Tony Allen, but slightly less useless on offense...but now he’s injured, that really, really, sucks. It means they have to start the god awful Jeremy lamb (when they’re not rolling out a double PG lineup with Jeremy Lin, who has actually looked great in preseason, and Kemba Walker). It’s kind of fun to watch Al Jefferson do post moves while smoking a blunt and listening to chopped & screwed albums about purple drank and fried chicken; same vibe. No one will watch them though & they’ll still miss the playoffs. Why hasn’t Jordan suited up yet?!
12. Brooklyn
Unwatchable trash kept afloat by Brook Lopez (until he gets injured). An endless grind of “Iso Joe” hogging the ball year after year, just making the % threshold to keep receiving the ball in a slow, mechanical grind. Analytics show that Jarrett Jack is among the worst PGs in the league, and he’s starting now. They traded away all their promising young guys, and the only youth they have left are multi-team rejects like the undersized Thomas Robinson (another failed Kings draft pick...oops, Lillard went 1 pick after him).
13. Detroit
???
There really isn’t much talent here outside of Drummond. True, there are the makings of a Stan Van Gundy system not unlike the one he implemented when he got Dwight Howard and the magic to the finals. Reggie Jackson is great in the pick and roll, but he isn’t really a good enough shooter for the plan that seems to be in progress here. Jennings was great last year until he tore his achilles: I actually love his game but it really doesn’t lend itself well to a recovery, and the fight with RJ for the starting PG spot is going to confuse things. Are Marcus Morris (the inferior Morris twin) and Ilyasova really gonna give them the shooting they need to climb much higher? Another beleaguered franchise that I don’t think is going anywhere. They might have to trade X and begin again after another disappointing year.
14. Magic
???????
I have little hope for this Roster. A lot of young talent that internet-types tend to lecherously jack off over, but the peices just don’t fit. They actually regressed last year, bottom tier in both defense and offense, even transition defense which is inexcusable for such an atheltic young team. Oladipo, who was absolutely great last season, is a ball dominant SG in the Kobe / Iverson vein, so he doesn’t fit at all with Payton, a Rondo-esque distributor who can’t shoot. Aaron Gordan has a lot of potential as a hyper-athletic Iguodala type, but Harris is a tweener at the four who doesn’t fit at all with Vucevic, a post-up monster who is really, to me, the only lock to still be on the team in a few years. If I was them I’d start moving these peices for one’s that fit better while they still have value.
15. 76ers
Another year without Embiid or Saric. A bunch of D-League guys (though I actually like Canaan). Noel has been beastly, but he really doesn’t fit with Okafor. Lacks spacing, lacks skill, but damn they got a lot of picks coming. Went to a bar in Philly last spring to see my wife who was studying at UPENN at the time: people were actually glumly watching the NBA finals & planning a “draft party.” How sad.