tirri's daily nhl predictions, season 2013-2014

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 06 Nov 2013, 17:46

My Tracked Plays
1* - [2] New York Rangers 2.30 vs Pittsburgh Penguins
2* - [8] Anaheim Ducks 1.64 vs Phoenix Coyotes
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

Losing day yesterday and i almost should have known better. Usually it doesnt pay off when the analyses are as late as yesterdays. However the bets were one so win away from being pretty profitable so everything wasnt all that bad, although i will have to keep an eye on Washington from now on.
Nothing big going on today, just small bets on matches that should be a little profitable. Im not the only one jumping on rangers right now so the odds might have already gone down. This isnt a knock on penguins who are playing really well right now, but the odds for rangers are still a little too good to pass on

BIG KROK V8 SS · Post by **BIG KROK V8 SS** » 07 Nov 2013, 07:16

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 07 Nov 2013, 14:36

lots of stuff to play today and unlike the day before yesterday, these didnt feel annoying to analyse at all and i had a chance to do the analysis before all the odds had already shifted. i usually feel uneasy about something and now it's because 4 out of 5 games are road games. even the home game (san jose v vancouver) is hardly a sure thing. but nevertheless i felt like all those matches have decent value

My Tracked Plays
2* - [53] Montreal Canadiens 1.95 vs Ottawa Senators
1* - [57] Minnesota Wild 1.95 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [55] New Jersey Devils 2.33 vs Philadelphia Flyers
1* - [61] New York Rangers 2.20 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
1* - [70] San Jose Sharks 1.59 vs Vancouver Canucks
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

If anyone is wondering about statistics:
I do tracking on several sites and have not and will not keep separate tracking for the picks i post here. the statistics should be excatly the same as on pickmonitor, but i have no idea how to select only this years matches in the pickmonitor stats, so i dont have an easy way to show how im doing for this year.
On another site my record for the year stands at 28 bets and 119% ROI which is very good albeit the sample size is small. that tracking is invalid for the bets i post here however, because that site allows me to place in regulation bets while pickmonitor doesnt. Most of my in regulation bets have won this year and the odds for those are naturally way better than moneyline bets so the ROI on that site is better than pickmonitors.

so in short: i dont think ill be posting any stats for these bets here since this site is more of an afterthought now. anyone can go check my pickmonitor page and see the recent bets there

par73 · Post by **par73** » 07 Nov 2013, 18:55

yeah i'm not sure sure about trusting the validity of this system when 4 out of 5 games are road games as well,
it will be interesting but I feel like those odds might be off a little

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 08 Nov 2013, 17:05

Bad day yesterday although i feel like Montreal and Minnesota were good picks for those odd. Minnesota lost with a late tying goal and finally in the so where my record is really bad now. San jose was a bad one however.

My Tracked Plays
1* - [4] Winnipeg Jets 1.87 vs Nashville Predators
1* - [8] Anaheim Ducks -1.5 2.00 vs Buffalo Sabres
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

These are rwally low confidence picks, no good bets today. I havent fully analysed the other 2 matches yet

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 08 Nov 2013, 20:14

1* - [1] New Jersey Devils 2.65 vs Toronto Maple Leafs

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 09 Nov 2013, 10:52

God damn these so losses. I know most have been on road teams, i havent checked if home teams win a signicant amount of shootouts more than the road team, gotta check it out some time

My Tracked Plays
1* - [56] Boston Bruins -1.5 2.60 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [56] Boston Bruins 1.53 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [53] Florida Panthers 2.65 vs Ottawa Senators
1* - [61] New York Islanders 2.10 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
1* - [65] Chicago Blackhawks 1.74 vs Dallas Stars
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 09 Nov 2013, 11:29

1* - [67] Washington Capitals 2.20 vs Phoenix Coyotes

BIG KROK V8 SS · Post by **BIG KROK V8 SS** » 09 Nov 2013, 16:02

What you think about Pens/Blues

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 09 Nov 2013, 18:00

i have penguins moneyline at about 46-50 and st. louis at about 50-54%. the odds are about 1,8 - 2,10 which make penguins a better option but not quite good enough to bet

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 10 Nov 2013, 04:11

Seriously, phoenix rallies from 2 goals Down in the last 4 mins and wash loses in the shootout. This was still a barely profitable day but these are getting pretty annoying since late comeback wins and wins in the SO really really havent gone my way this season

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 10 Nov 2013, 15:21

My Tracked Plays
1* - [8] Chicago Blackhawks 1.33 vs Edmonton Oilers
1* - [8] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 2.10 vs Edmonton Oilers
2* - [10] Colorado Avalanche 1.57 vs Washington Capitals
1* - [14] Anaheim Ducks 1.61 vs Vancouver Canucks
1* - [12] Winnipeg Jets 2.50 vs San Jose Sharks

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 10 Nov 2013, 15:52

1* - [6] New Jersey Devils 1.86 vs Nashville Predators

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 10 Nov 2013, 18:44

1* - [1] New York Islanders 2.88 vs Montreal Canadiens

all games for the day get a bet, thats not really a good sign for the model but what the hell

shr0mbus · Post by **shr0mbus** » 11 Nov 2013, 04:55

was a good day today. =) thanks for being honest with how confident u are =) Home games all pulled through... lol. in a year or 2 u will iron out all the little kinks with ur system =)

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 11 Nov 2013, 06:55

yeah this was a good day. im now +$838 at pickmonitor for the season so im slowly making money and i dont really feel like i have been especially lucky, rather most of the late comebacks and such have gone against me. even today the closest call was the -1,5 spread for chicago that i lost after edmonton scored a shorthanded goal at 18:32 in the third.

i dont remember if i have mentioned this yet this season. i want to remind everyone that pickmonitor uses american style odds, which means that
1* - [1] New York Islanders 2.88 vs Montreal Canadiens and
1* - [8] Chicago Blackhawks 1.33 vs Edmonton Oilers
are not the same amount of money. for favourites it means that i bet x amount of money to win 100 dollars (ie for chicago it was over 300) while for underdogs it means that i bet 100 dollars to win x amount of money (ie for islanders i bet 100 dollars to win 188 dollars)
i dont really like the way its presented in that "my plays" copy paste thing from pickmonitor but i dont have time to start manually making it more readable.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 11 Nov 2013, 08:15

although in all fairness, talking about luck i did dodge a bullet with anaheim vs vancouver. getzlaf was hurt and that wasnt taken into account when i placed the bet, anaheim got pretty badly outplayed but managed to win

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 11 Nov 2013, 13:50

no bets today although i've been lazy and haven't analysed the one and only match yet.

i feel like im finding less and less solid home favourites to play this season as the average odds for them seem to be significantly lower than last season. i think i made most money last season betting on consistent home favourites like boston, rangers, st. louis and montreal when the average odds for win in regulation were about 1,8-2.

i didnt do a throughout research but with games played being between 10 and 20 there were about 7 home favourites in total with the average odds for win in regulation (taken some time during the morning of the game day) being less than 1,8 last season. this season there have already been 17 cases like that and all teams havent even reached 20 games yet so the population is smaller than last season's. this has been pretty clearly reflected in the amount of road underdog bets i've done this season even though generally i feel like it's much harder to find value from those. i just dont feel like for example boston's overall play warranted the 1,78 reg win odds against dallas or minnesotas 1,76 against calgary or even last night's 1,74 for rangers vs florida, even if i dont remember whether the home teams pulled through in those games or not. one thing i can say is that it should be pretty hard to reach those odds analysing mostly this season's data for those teams. maybe someone who makes prior power rankings before the season starts can still find value in those odds.

i hope things will change because my overall gut feeling is a lot worse when i go to sleep and about 4/5 of my bets are for really big road underdogs

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 12 Nov 2013, 09:42

My Tracked Plays
2* - [15] Winnipeg Jets 2.50 vs Detroit Red Wings
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

probably more to come later

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 12 Nov 2013, 12:51

My Tracked Plays
1* - [9] New Jersey Devils 2.45 vs New York Rangers
1* - [17] Philadelphia Flyers 2.35 vs Ottawa Senators
2* - [20] St. Louis Blues 1.59 vs Phoenix Coyotes
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 12 Nov 2013, 13:44

My Tracked Plays
2* - [3] Los Angeles Kings 1.53 vs Buffalo Sabres
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

BIG KROK V8 SS · Post by **BIG KROK V8 SS** » 12 Nov 2013, 15:42

No more steven stamkos

toxyn · Post by **toxyn** » 13 Nov 2013, 02:37

Yea terrible news :\

Bolts are still a solid team as long as Bishop is healthy. We have the depth to at least stay competitive in the East and have plenty of talent amongst the youngsters.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 13 Nov 2013, 08:00

still waiting for the first really good day of the season. this one was pretty close as only kings and st. louis lost in ot or so and i felt both were pretty dominant so this day could have easily been 5/5. shame to lose with favorites since i got all the underdogs right. still probably cant complain about yesterday because at least winnipeg - detroit and devils - rangers could easily have gone the other way.

its worth talking about stamkos a little bit because i know a lot of handicappers were all over the montreal - tampa game yesterday, either figuring its an easy bet for montreal or on the other hand that the market usually overreacts to injuries like this and the odds end up being good for tampa. i know a lot of people were manually adding and subtracting a random amount of percents from their estimates in according to the injury. my betting process doesnt work that way at all, ie i only use things that i can measure are statistically significant in relation to the results / goals scored. i have no way to measure the effect of stamkos getting injured, so usually i just wont bet on tampas matches now. the only way i would have bet on yesterdays match was if the models recommended betting on montreal (without knowing stamkos is hurt) with the already low odds, because the only thing i feel confident about is that tampa is a worse team without stamkos than with him in the line-up. obviously this didnt happen because montreals odds were so low.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 13 Nov 2013, 09:57

My Tracked Plays
2* - [52] Minnesota Wild 1.63 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [52] Minnesota Wild -1.5 2.95 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

no other bets today as i feel that the dallas - edmonton and pittsburgh - philadelphia odds are very well placed now. dallas is hovering at the brink of profitability and they might be even more profitable than my models show since i dont think the models fully take into account the difference between dallas' lehtonen and whoever edmonton will put in goal. however this season i have basically stopped doing any so called fun-bets that only seem slightly profitable, so no bet for me. also the -1,5 for minnesota might be streching it a little bit and i havent fully researched when those spread bets are profitable, but at least the other bet should be good. also worth noting is that on pickmonitor i put minnesota ML 1,63 but for my other tracking sites and for my own bets i actually bet minnesota in regulation 2.0 as according to my research that should be more profitable in the long run

par73 · Post by **par73** » 13 Nov 2013, 16:48

no more fun-bets?

c'mon T if you got an option to place a fun-bet on a bruins game y' should do it !

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 14 Nov 2013, 18:36

shoulda went for the fun bet!

My Tracked Plays
2* - [1] Los Angeles Kings 1.80 vs New York Islanders
1* - [10] Chicago Blackhawks 1.56 vs Phoenix Coyotes
1* - [13] San Jose Sharks 2.00 vs Vancouver Canucks
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 14 Nov 2013, 18:52

1* - [4] Boston Bruins 1.59 vs Columbus Blue Jackets

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 15 Nov 2013, 06:55

First perfect day on pickmonitor although it took quite a lot of luck. My own day wasnt as perfect however since i bet Chicago for win in regulation.

Heres a completely arbitrary and missleading snippet of my recent pickmonitor record to entice you with
Time Pick Bet Size Result
11/14/13 10:05PM [13] San Jose Sharks 2.00 $100 +$100
11/14/13 8:05PM [10] Chicago Blackhawks 1.56 $100 +$100
11/14/13 7:05PM [1] Los Angeles Kings 1.80 $200 +$200
11/14/13 7:05PM [4] Boston Bruins 1.59 $100 +$100
11/13/13 7:35PM [52] Minnesota Wild -1.5 2.95 $100 -$100
11/13/13 7:35PM [52] Minnesota Wild 1.63 $200 +$200
11/12/13 8:05PM [20] St. Louis Blues 1.59 $200 -$340
11/12/13 7:35PM [15] Winnipeg Jets 2.50 $200 +$300
11/12/13 7:35PM [17] Philadelphia Flyers 2.35 $100 +$135
11/12/13 7:05PM [3] Los Angeles Kings 1.53 $200 -$380
11/12/13 7:05PM [9] New Jersey Devils 2.45 $100 +$145
11/10/13 8:05PM [10] Colorado Avalanche 1.57 $200 +$200
11/10/13 8:05PM [12] Winnipeg Jets 2.50 $100 +$150
11/10/13 8:05PM [14] Anaheim Ducks 1.61 $100 +$100
11/10/13 7:35PM [8] Chicago Blackhawks 1.33 $100 +$100

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 15 Nov 2013, 14:07

My Tracked Plays
1* - [53] Toronto Maple Leafs 1.71 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [63] Boston Bruins 1.91 vs Ottawa Senators
1* - [69] San Jose Sharks 1.57 vs Edmonton Oilers
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

again only road teams which is annoying.
barely profitable in the long run might be minnesota ML 1.4 and los angeles ML 1,9 but i wont bet on those

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 16 Nov 2013, 14:02

My Tracked Plays
1* - [9] Tampa Bay Lightning 2.30 vs Phoenix Coyotes
1* - [11] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 2.60 vs Nashville Predators
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

really hard day to bet today, 9 matches and even the ones i bet for now are really really low confidence. that chicago match is -1,5 spread only because of pickmonitors system, ie i only wanted to risk 100 dollars for the -1,5 win, not 170 dollars to win 100 with chicago moneyline. i also have st. louis, islanders, rangers and new jersey as pretty good options but not good enough to bet.

yesterday was a really tough day too, only 1/3 bets hit even though i was pretty happy with how the teams i bet for played. 4 other matches went to the shootout so overall it was a difficult day.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 16 Nov 2013, 16:37

1* - [8] Toronto Maple Leafs -1 1.79 vs Buffalo Sabres

These are all bets for today. This was By far the most annoying day to predict and all the predictions are really low confidence. Basically at means that the odds were really well placed at least according to my model. Im having a hard time finding any value from consistent performers like st. Louis, pittsburg and so on

BIG KROK V8 SS · Post by **BIG KROK V8 SS** » 16 Nov 2013, 17:09

This is a really pointless thread, fyi.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 16 Nov 2013, 19:12

i assume some people are following these predictions which is why im still posting these here. there are services out there that cost 2000 euros per season with barely positive ROI or at the very best something like 7% ROI. i could ask for a lot of money for betting tips if the roi stays at 15% and im now posting them here for free. but dont worry, with how busy ive been lately, this thread wont continue for long

NewMutator · Post by **NewMutator** » 16 Nov 2013, 20:10

Don't listen to krok, Myth's premiere troller. This thread is gold and I enjoy following your thought process.

NewMutator · Post by **NewMutator** » 16 Nov 2013, 20:13

What does the -1 for Toronto designate?

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 16 Nov 2013, 20:25

To tell you the truth im not a 100 % sure as i dont bet on 5dimes for real and rarely if ever do -1 spreads but i liked risking less money than i would have for a moneyline bet. I assume it means that if Toronto loses in regulation or the game goes to overtime, i lose the bet. If Toronto wins in regulation with 1 goal its a push and i get my money back and if Tor wins by more than 1 goal i win the bet

For the record in my own money bets i bet Toronto win in regulation which isnt the same as -1 but as ive said before, pickmonitor doesnt have a true win in regulation option or at least i havent found one

NewMutator · Post by **NewMutator** » 16 Nov 2013, 20:40

I see, so it's more of an approximation since you are copypasting

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 17 Nov 2013, 05:11

Bad day again with 1/3 hitting. Even more annoying considering 4/4 of the pretty good options went right but like i said, it was a difficult day

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 17 Nov 2013, 13:12

My Tracked Plays
2* - [53] St. Louis Blues 1.83 vs Washington Capitals
2* - [55] Los Angeles Kings 1.91 vs New York Rangers
1* - [57] San Jose Sharks 2.10 vs Chicago Blackhawks
2* - [62] Minnesota Wild 1.54 vs Winnipeg Jets
1* - [62] Minnesota Wild -1 1.91 vs Winnipeg Jets
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

seemed like a much easier day to make predictions for but im too tired to do any big analysis although i do have stuff to say about these. ottawa vs columbus is still pending because the lines arent out yet, presumably because ryans status is unknown but im not sure. also i havent analysed vancouver - dallas but at a glance it didnt look like theres a bet to be found there

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 17 Nov 2013, 15:48

1* - [51] Columbus Blue Jackets 2.45 vs Ottawa Senators

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 18 Nov 2013, 09:56

My Tracked Plays
1* - [2] Carolina Hurricanes 2.25 vs Boston Bruins
1* - [4] Pittsburgh Penguins -1 2.08 vs Anaheim Ducks
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

ok day yesterday although holtby's 46/47 effort and halaks 3/6 was pretty disappointing as st. louis was a pretty high confidence pick. still comfortably profitable day. nothing really good going on today, just small bets

Professional Killer · Post by **Professional Killer** » 18 Nov 2013, 16:07

BIG KROK V8 SS wrote:This is a really pointless thread, fyi.

I dissagree.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 19 Nov 2013, 09:33

more to come later

My Tracked Plays
1* - [53] St. Louis Blues -1 1.87 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [53] St. Louis Blues 1.50 vs Buffalo Sabres
1* - [70] Los Angeles Kings -1 2.18 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
1* - [70] Los Angeles Kings 1.67 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 19 Nov 2013, 11:57

My Tracked Plays
1* - [56] Philadelphia Flyers 1.87 vs Ottawa Senators
1* - [51] New York Islanders 2.20 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
1* - [56] Philadelphia Flyers -1 2.67 vs Ottawa Senators
1* - [59] Minnesota Wild 1.95 vs Montreal Canadiens
1* - [65] Columbus Blue Jackets 1.91 vs Edmonton Oilers
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

its a betting extravaganza today as at least 6 out of 10 matches get a recommendation.

BIG KROK V8 SS · Post by **BIG KROK V8 SS** » 19 Nov 2013, 15:06

No the numbers and stuff that tirri posts makes zero sense.

NewMutator · Post by **NewMutator** » 20 Nov 2013, 00:11

I'm still a bit confused with the + and -1. Is that shorthand for 1.5 or not? I haven't really seen that option anywhere if not.

BIG KROK V8 SS · Post by **BIG KROK V8 SS** » 20 Nov 2013, 05:04

stupid euros and their shitty metric system and numbers and shit, shit.

REAL DATES ARE MONTH/DAY/YEAR.

NOVEMBER 20, 2013 IS EASY TO SAY THAN: IT IS THE 20TH DAY OF NOVEMBER IN 2013.

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 20 Nov 2013, 06:37

pretty strange day. all the big bets won so it was a rather profitable one (over +370 dollars at pickmonitor i think) but im not too happy about the overall results. i had a pretty good feeling about all of yesterday's bets so minnesota, columbus and islanders losing 2-6, 0-7 and 2-5 was pretty disappointing. but i guess i should be happy about the results and even though st. louis and los angeles seem like easy pick afterwards, im sure a lot of people lost money on other "easy picks" such as vancouver vs florida or even chicago vs colorado and detroit vs nashville.

the decimal odds are easy to convert into american style odds so ill leave that to you.
the first number is the bet size. for example 1 means (for favorites) risk x amount to win 100 dollars and for underdogs risk 100 dollars to win x amount

-1 is not the same thing as -1,5
-1,5 spread means that if the team doesnt win with at least 2 goals, i lose
-1 spread means that i win if team wins with 2 goals or more, 1 goal win is a push so i get my money back but dont win anything and otherwise i lose. i dont even know how many bookies offer this but its an option on pickmonitor (so at least 5dimes offers it)
when i put -1 spread on pickmonitor, my own money bet is usually -0,5 on pinnacle, which just comes down to win in regulation or i lose

oh and it's worth mentioning that even though the difference between -1,5 and -1 spreads seems pretty small, the difference in odds is actually rather big since a 1 goal win is quite common

tirri · Post by **tirri** » 20 Nov 2013, 18:09

didnt have time to do analysis early today and best opportunities are already gone, only small bets today
My Tracked Plays
1* - [1] Minnesota Wild 1.95 vs Ottawa Senators
1* - [3] Pittsburgh Penguins 1.83 vs Washington Capitals
These plays are being tracked under the username lunatus at Pick Monitor

i havent checked out the other 2 matches yet.