TWO MOCK DRAFT PREDICTIONS

by The Myth Council
par73
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TWO MOCK DRAFT PREDICTIONS

Postby par73 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:16 pm

Hello hello readers, mythers and welfare recipients alike.

Today is the day, the DAY of the DRAFT! Draft Day, they call it, will decide our fates over the next few weeks in regards to our teammates and opponents.

In light of this heart warming, community gathering event, I would like to present to you two predictions on the results of the draft, using two different procedures. The biggest problem with these procedures is : a FFA game will decide the draft order. I won't know the results of that game until long after the draft, thus I cannot pick you a perfect draft order. I will instead improvise based on the theme of the procedure, and make the assumption that all 8 captains will be drafting.

PROCEDURE I : RATINGS
Using a drafting procedure based on the community pooled ratings, with lowest rated captains getting the first pick in the snake-style alternating draft.

Draft order would look like this:
garnish
some loser
scratch
dentist
lord scary owl
ruin
zak
THOR

Player Pool Descended by Ranking
east wind
cruniac
gekko
adrenaline
par
tirri
ratking
dantski
hmp
trev
wwo
thal
phos
flatline
argos
sin
killerking
funk
seeker
sormion
jahral
asmodian


And the teams?
Team 1:
garnish, east wind, sin, killerking

Team 2:
some loser, cruniac, argos, funk

Team 3:
scratch, gekko, flatline, seeker

Team 4:
dentist, adrenaline, phos, sormion

Team 5:
lord scary owl, par, thal, jahral

Team 6:
ruin, tirri, wwo, asmodian

Team 7:
zak, ratking, trev

Team 8:
THOR, dantski, hmp


let's analyze:
As we can see, teams 7 and 8 only have 3 players, yet with full attendence and participation both of those squads are some of the most solid within the tournament. the teams hurt the most by a draft strictly done through player rankings, seem to me would be team 1 or 2. while both of these teams have a top 2 player in the tournament, the remainder of the roster lacks mechanical skill, in-game awareness and potentially game-winning drive. It would be best that these two star players step up to orchestrate their players, but it will take some serious personal drive to overcome the challenges that will face these teams. overall, most of the teams are well rounded and the teams with player disadvantages

PROCEDURE 2 : PARPAR BIASES
Using my own personal biases, I'll judge some mock results of the FFA game which decides the order.
I think the placement of that game will go something like this:

lord scary owl
zak
ruin
THOR
dentist
scratch
some loser
garnish

hmm that was easy and quick, no wonder Cu decided to draft the teams for The Cu Classic on his own.


with that order in mind, I think the pickings would go something like this

east wind
cruniac
gekko
adrenaline
par
tirri
ratking
dantski
hmp
trev
asmodian
wwo
thal
flatline
argos
killerking
funk
sin
phos
sormion
seeker
jahral

Team 1:
Lord Scary Owl, East Wind, Killerking, Funk


Team 2: Zak, Cruniac, Argos, Sin

Team 3: Ruin, Gekko, Flatline, Phos

Team 4: THOR, Adrenaline, thal, Sormion

Team 5: Dentist, par, wwo, Seeker

Team 6: Scratch, Tirri, Asmodian, Jahral,

Team 7: Some Loser, Ratking, Trevelyan

Team 8: Garnish, Dantski, HMP

analysis:
honestly I think sin could be picked before KK or funk, but I doubt LSO knows much about him. I also think thal could be drafted earlier but he is often underrated by most myth players, same goes for HMP but I think his underrated Jig is up after his exemplary 2016 tournament performances. Regardless, I think if the FFA game has similar results to this, then any players who might not be as skilled as others, falling into places 6-8 in the ffa game, could be at risk for unattended forfeit teams. Not only are teams 7 and 8 down a player, but their picks come from the middle of the pack and their respective captain is likely not a FFA superstar. If the tournament continues to be run in an 8-team format, these teams are at risk for attendence issues more than any other teams. At the same time, I think the players involved could rise above those challenges with minimal effort.

note : i thought chron was signed up to this tournament, which would change things. however i no longer see his name listed for player rankings or on Akira's Google Drive Draft Board, so I left him out. sorry marv :(
also i thought akira was participating, and these two final additions would set up all teams for 4-man rosters, but we'll just have to see the decision our gracious TO decides on. Trev is playing, as a TO, so I don't see why he should hold back either.

final analysis: Rumor has it this tournament will turn into a 2-team event with more than 4 players per team, and seeing as how not all teams can even draft a 4th player it would make sense to do so. I think there is enough skill throughout the player base where not one specific team will be at a significant disadvantage, unless their captain drafts an abysmal team (thereby making every other team stronger in the process). This should be a fun event. I'm not sure how long Akira will be hosting for but I'm excited to see the results of the draft and begin play once again !

Hope you enjoyed my thoughts and ramblings!
Par

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